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BYU Bye Week Takeaways: Big 12 Contenders Stumble and is Stanford Good?

Joe Wheat|
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts against Stanford
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts against Stanford | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

BYU was off this week which means Cougar Nation had an entire day to take in the college football landscape without any stress or distraction. Just kidding. We all know you were out picking apples and visiting farmers markets with the family. No problem. We got you covered. Here are the BYU adjacent events that are worth noting after a wild college football Saturday.

The AP poll is on a generational losing streak

The AP poll had a very bad week after one of its voters moved Florida up in her ballot following a loss. That pollster defended that decision by saying at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter. This week, the pollsters ranked a winless Notre Dame 24th after back-to-back losses to open the season. The team that’s first out of the rankings? BYU. Meanwhile, Baylor and TCU both have P4 road wins and top 25 quarterbacks, but cant crack the top 30. Unfortunately, the narrative has been set that Big 12 teams that weren’t on the national radar preseason will have to work twice as hard to get there in season.

Turns out, Stanford and ECU might be good?

Following BYU’s 27-3 win over Stanford, fans leaving Lavell Edwards Stadium were bewildered that BYU couldn’t muster more than 27 points against a listless Stanford team. Fast forward a week, and Stanford held a good Boston College team to 53 yards of offense and 0 points in the second half en route to a 30-20 win. While Stanford won’t be a playoff team, they certainly aren’t UCLA, and that should speak volumes on how much more impressive BYU was in week two than originally thought.

BYU will need to be more impressive, though, as they take on a resurgent ECU team that is 2-1 and are outscoring opponents 94-3 over their last two games. While BYU should win, ECU is still a top 50 team that is ranked higher in ESPN's FPI than 19 P4 teams this season. BYU can absolutely lose this game if they choose to sleepwalk through it.

Crowning Utah and TCU may have been an overreaction

After week one, TCU and Utah were the darlings of the conference, and the consensus pick to represent the conference in Arlington. After three weeks of data, that may have been premature. At the time, Utah’s 43-10 drubbing of UCLA was a landmark win that vaulted Utah into the top 20. Turns out, UCLA is terrible and has since been beaten down by back-to-back Mountain West teams. Couple that with Utah playing with their food for three quarters against Wyoming, the Utes might be human.

TCU also received their flowers for spoiling Bill Belichick’s UNC debut through a dominant defensive performance. That defense, however, showed cracks giving up 453 yards and over 6 yards per play vs. FCS foe Abilene Christian. TCU’s offense behind Josh Hoover will win the Frogs a lot of games this season, but giving up 9.5 yards per pass to an FCS team won’t get it done if that is what TCU’s defense is this year.

West Virginia is a beautiful mystery, but Saturday was almost heaven

When the Mountaineers mustered just 10 points in a loss to Ohio (not State, just Ohio), the ambulance was called. Turns out, the ambulance was for Pitt. WVU surrendered just 1.4 yards per carry and forced 6 sacks as Pitt was stifled for 24 points. QB Nicco Marchiol and RB Tye Edwards wrote their names into Backyard Brawl lore with a gutsy two-minute drill to tie the game with 11 seconds to go before sealing the win with a touchdown in overtime. West Virginia probably isn’t a Big12 title contender, but watching Rich Rodriguez celebrate that win made us feel like it was 2007 all over again. Their visit to Lavell Edwards Stadium in October just got a little more interesting.

Houston, Cincinnati, and Arizona are rising

Houston dominated Coach Prime and co. behind 305 total yards and 2 TDs from Texas A&M transfer QB Connor Weigman. Cincinnati erased an FCS foe 70-0 behind a perfect 15/15, 253 yard, 5 touchdown day from QB Brendan Sorsby. Arizona pulled off the home win vs. Kansas State and are allowing just 8.7 points per game this season. All three programs missed a bowl game last year, but are a combined 8-1 to start this season. Mark it down, these three teams are going to ruin someone’s season.

Colorado, Kansas State, and Arizona State are falling

No one expected much from Colorado but, then again, no one expected the Buffalos to be starting their third string quarterback in week three. The Buffs were manhandled at the line of scrimmage at Houston while demonstrating why Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders got their jerseys retired this offseason. Arizona State’s arrow is clearly pointed down without Cam Skattebo after beating an FCS team by 19, scoring just 20 points in a loss to Mississippi State, and a lackluster win over Texas State. Kansas State, meanwhile, is an abject disaster. The Wildcats went from the top 20 to 1-3 and could be facing a coaching staff overhaul by week six. The Cats will struggle to make a bowl this year. All 3 teams came into the season with lofty expectations and have fallen woefully short through three weeks.

The Big 12 has separated into three clear tiers

BYU Running Back LJ Martin against Stanford
BYU Running Back LJ Martin against Stanford | BYU Photo

While it’s still early, our eyes tell us there are three clear tiers in the conference:

Contenders: Texas Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Utah, BYU, Baylor

Competing for a bowl: Kansas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, West Virginia

Maybe next year: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, UCF, Colorado

The contenders all have the following in common: An OOC P5 win, are receiving votes in the AP poll, and have either a top QB or a top defense in the conference. Teams like Kansas and ASU can crack this tier at some point, but will need to prove it against a team of similar talent before we can forget their late game breakdowns against Missouri and Mississippi State.  

None of these takeaways could be true next week

The Big 12 is the “Upside-down.” Good is bad. Bad is good. 9-win teams last year won’t make a bowl and 5-win teams are favored to win the conference. West Viginia loses to Ohio and next week beats Pitt. Iowa State is 4-0 with 2 P4 wins, and no one has any idea if they are good following a bizarre 24-16 win at Arkansas State. Truth be told, we may not know who is truly good this year until week 9 and maybe not even then. Welcome to America's conference.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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