BYU Football Schedule: Likely Wins, Losses, & Tossups

Earlier this week, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his final preseason SP+ college football rankings - BYU came in at #31. BYU's 2021 opponents ranked as high as #14 (USC) and as low as #116 (Georgia Southern) in the SP+ rankings.

Using SP+ as a baseline, which games on BYU's 2021 schedule are likely wins, likely losses, and likely tossups?

Let's start with likely wins. Any team ranked 20 spots or lower than the Cougars in the SP+ rankings will be considered an odds-on win.

Likely Wins

vs Arizona - Saturday Sep. 4

BYU will take on Arizona in the new Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. Arizona is coming off an 0-5 season after which they fired head coach Kevin Sumlin. This will be the coaching debut for new Arizona coach Jedd Fisch.

2020 Record: 0-5

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #96

After nearly beating USC in their opener, Arizona stumbled to the finish line last season. Their season ended with a 70-7 blowout loss against rival Arizona State and the eventual firing of head coach Kevin Sumlin. That nightmare ending to the 2020 season puts Arizona towards the bottom of the SP+ college football rankings to start the 2021 season.

USF - Saturday Sep. 25

BYU will play their third-straight home game against USF on September 25th.

2020 Record: 1-8

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #99

USF went 1-8 in 2020. SP+ believes USF will rank in the bottom third of college football again this season. The Cougars have an opportunity to avenge their bad loss at USF in 2019.

@ Utah State - Friday Oct. 1

BYU will travel to Utah State to take on head coach Blake Anderson for the first time.

2020 Record: 1-5

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #114

The Aggies went 1-5 in 2020. The eye test of the 2020 Aggies was even worse than their record suggests - Utah State was downright awful last season. New head coach Blake Anderson will try to turn things around in Logan. SP+ predicts the Aggies will be one of the worst FBS teams in college football and the worst FBS team on BYU's 2021 schedule.

Virginia - Saturday Oct. 30

Bronco Mendenhall returns to Lavell Edwards Stadium to take on his former team.

2020 Record: 5-5

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #56

After a disappointing 2020 season, SP+ believes Virginia will be a mediocre team in 2021.

Idaho State - Saturday Nov. 6

Idaho State is not an FBS team. Therefore, they are not ranked in the SP+ rankings. However, the Cougars will be heavy favorites and probably have an expected win probability of ~99%.

@ Georgia Southern - Saturday Nov. 20

BYU takes on Georgia Southern for the first time in program history.

2020 Record: 8-5

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #116

Like BYU, Georgia Southern will be very inexperienced in 2021.

Total likely wins: 6

Next, let's look at likely losses. Any team ranked 15 spots or higher than the Cougars in the FPI rankings will be considered an odds-on loss.

Likely Losses

@ USC - Saturday Nov. 27

A regular season finale in the Coliseum? Yes, you read that right. BYU will travel to USC to take on the Trojans.

2020 Record: 5-1

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #14

PAC-12 South champions USC returns less production in 2021 than most of their PAC-12 counterparts. Regardless, USC will probably be the most talented team BYU faces next season. SP+ believes USC is the best team on BYU's 2021 schedule. It's very difficult to win at the Coliseum - I have this game penciled as BYU's most difficult in 2021.

Total likely losses: 1

Let's look at the tossup games on BYU's schedule. On paper, these games could be the difference between a six-win season or a nine-win season. By process of elimination, these are games where BYU's opponents ranked within either 15 spots above BYU or 20 spots below (16-51) BYU in the SP+ rankings.

Tossups

Utah - Saturday Sep. 11

BYU hosts rival Utah at home where they will have another chance to end the streak.

2020 Record: 3-2

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #21

Utah returns a lot of production in 2021. After losing their first two games of the 2020 season, the Utes turned things around and finished 3-2. Their defense, which has become the staple under Kyle Whittingham, should be very good in 2021. Their offense could also pose a threat through the air with transfer quarterback Charlie Brewer.

Utah will probably be favored to win this game, but the advanced analytics will give BYU (since they are the home team) a 2-3 point boost in its predictive formula. Therefore, predictive analytics will likely have BYU-Utah as a tossup.

Arizona State - Saturday Sep. 18

BYU will face a third PAC-12 South opponent in as many weeks when they host Arizona State on September 18th.

2020 Record: 2-2

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #22

It's difficult to draw too many conclusions about a team that only played four games last season. Like Utah, Arizona State returns a lot of production in 2021. SP+ believes Arizona State will be in the top quadrant of college football next season. However, Arizona State has already suspended multiple members of their coaching staff following 2020 recruiting violations. It's impossible to quantify how their absence will impact this game.

Boise State - Saturday Oct. 9

BYU will be competing for their third-straight win against Boise State this season. Boise State will also feature a new head coach - former head coach Bryan Harsin was hired by Auburn. Andy Avalos is the new head coach at Boise State.

2020 Record: 5-2

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #39

Boise State ranks in the bottom third of college football in terms of returning production. In the past, returning production has been irrelevant for Boise State - they have found a way to win a lot of games every season. Can new head coach Andy Avalos continue the winning tradition in Boise?

ESPN FPI is skeptical - it expects the Broncos to finish with 6-8 wins. For a program like Boise State, 6-8 wins would be disappointing.

@ Baylor - Saturday Oct. 16

BYU will travel to Baylor for their first of three-straight P5 games late in the season. BYU fans have wanted more meaningful games late in the season - that is exactly what the 2021 schedule will provide. The Cougars will face former BYU OC Jeff Grimes and former BYU OL coach Eric Mateos.

2020 Record: 2-7

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #49

Despite losing quarterback Charlie Brewer and going 2-7 last season, SP+ believes the Bears will rebound and have a chance to play in a bowl game.

@ Washington State - Saturday Oct. 23

BYU will travel to Pullman to take on Washington State.

2020 Record: 1-3

2021 Preseason SP+ Ranking: #45

Washington State returns a lot of production from a 2020 season where they went 1-3. Of note, Washington State picked up a quarterback transfer out of Tennessee in Jarett Guarantano. BYU beat Guarantano in an overtime thriller in 2019 when he played for Tennessee.

SP+ believes Washington State is a mediocre P5 team heading into this season.

Total tossups: 5

If you have been keeping track, that is six likely wins, only one likely loss, and five tossups. If BYU can win the games they will be favored to win, and win 2 "tossup" games, an eight-win season is achievable. If they can do all that, and turn a "likely loss" into a win or win the majority of the tossup games, the 2021 season could be a special one.

It is important to remember that preseason rankings will change dramatically after a few weeks of games. For example, before BYU blew out Navy last year, ESPN FPI gave BYU only a 28% chance to win. If those two teams would have played towards the end of the season, FPI likely would have given BYU an ~85% chance to win. I expect more movement this season.

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