BYU Football Schedule Release: Way-Too Early Predictions
Seven months from today, BYU plays a football game. Speaking of future football games, the Big 12 released its official conference schedule on Tuesday. The time has come to make our way-too-early predictions about how BYU will fare in the 2024 campaign. Before we do, a few caveats.
First, I am higher on BYU than most this year. Shocker. If BYU basketball’s turnaround has taught us anything, continuity can radically change a program, and BYU has plenty of it on offense. Meanwhile, BYU’s defensive staff is producing the best recruiting class in program history. There are reasons for optimism.
Second, this prediction is way too early. There are still plenty of question marks around this BYU program that wont be answered until spring and maybe fall camp, including BYU’s starting QB. Not to mention there is another transfer window and a signing day still to come.
Now without further ado, here is the unvarnished truth as to what BYU will accomplish this season.
8/31 - Southern Illinois – Win
BYU is 18-0 against FCS opponents in program history and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, no matter how awesome of a school nickname the “Salukis” have.
9/6 - @ SMU – Win
This one’s a toss-up. On the one hand, SMU is coming off an 11-win season, and return QB Preston Stone. On the other hand, the Mustangs proved to be a paper tiger in 2023. SMU lost to all three games against Power Five opponents by double digits after allowing an average of 214 rush yards per game and scoring an average of 14 points. I like what Jay Hill is building and a steady dose LJ Martin and Gerry Bohanan/Jake Retzlaff’s dua- threat ability will be able to keep the Mustangs on their heels.
9/13 - @ Wyoming – Win
Why BYU is playing this game in Laramie is beyond me. War Memorial Stadium is where P5 teams go to die early in the season. The Cowboys have knocked off Texas Tech and Missouri at home in recent years, but will also be breaking in a new head coach after the retirement of Wyoming legend Craig Bohl. This game will be a lot closer than anyone wants it to be, but BYU's rebuilt front seven will be enough to notch a 10th straight win over the Pokes.
9/21 - Kansas State - Loss
Kansas State is coming off their second straight top 20 season and will be a trendy pick to win the conference. The Wildcats lost multiple QBs, including multi-year starter Will Howard to the transfer portal, but return a 1,000-yard rusher in DJ Giddens and the second-highest rated QB prospect in program history in Avery Johnson. K-State has built their program from the trenches and will be too much for BYU’s rebuilt offensive and defensive lines to handle this early in the season.
9/28 - @ Baylor – Win
Baylor is kind of a mess right now. The Bears went 3-9 a year ago, fired both coordinators, and lost their starting QB to the transfer portal. The defense allowed fewer than 30 points to FBS teams 3 times last season and only added one potential contributor out of the portal on that side of the ball. Baylor has a knack for shocking the world after a down season, but I think BYU is catching them in Waco at the right time.
10/12 - Arizona – Win
Arizona was my pick to win the Big 12 this season. Well, they were, until head coach Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington, leaving new head coach Brent Brennan holding the mostly empty bag. Arizona lost 19 players to the transfer portal virtually overnight. The good news for Arizona is that they are returning potentially the best QB/WR duo in the country in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. We will see if their defense will be able to recover, but I think the U of A offense will be dangerous. I think the home crowd proves to be the difference in this one.
10/19 - Oklahoma State – Loss
I give BYU a punchers chance against Oklahoma State, especially after taking the Pokes to double overtime in Stillwater a year ago. That said, I have too many night terrors about Ollie Gordon running for 5 touchdowns on the Cougs last season and this is just about the time of year when injuries start piling up and Oklahoma State starts turning it on.
Credit: BYU Photo
10/26 - @ UCF – Loss
UCF is a sleeping giant in the Big 12. The Knights are coming off a bowl appearance in their first Big 12 season and responded with a top 40 recruiting class that has featured eight four-star recruits. KJ Jefferson is a good enough QB to keep the UCF offense humming. I think UCF’s skill positions and a cross-country road trip will be a little too much for BYU to handle.
11/9 - @ Utah – Loss
I reserve the right to change my mind here. The logic for pulling the upset here is simple.
- Weird things happen in rivalry games
- Utah lost a lot of production from an already disappointing 8-5 season
- Cam Rising is a limited passer coming off reconstructive knee surgery, and there are a lot of question marks on an offense that has been rebuilt through the transfer portal and players returning from injury
On the other hand, I really like Utah’s transfer portal additions, especially at WR and CB. I am not as bullish on Utah as some, but I can at least anticipate what they will be: Well coached, awesome on defense, and good enough on offense. I can’t feel confident that BYU will win in Salt Lake for the first time in 20 years until BYU addresses its own question marks, particularly in the trenches.
11/16 - Kansas – Loss
Kansas’ run game with Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal are a straight-up wagon when healthy. Who knows if either will be healthy late in the season, but assuming they are, I’m not sure BYU will be able to stop them for 60 minutes, even with the new-look defensive line.
11/23 - @ Arizona State – Win
I see the vision of what Kenny Dillingham is building. ASU had horrific injury luck at QB along the way to a 3-9 campaign that featured three one-score losses, including allowing just 15 points to national runner-up Washington in Seattle. Couple that with the 21st ranked transfer portal class, the return former 5-star QB Jayden Rashada and I think ASU could be a sleeper pick to make a bowl game. That said, I think ASU is still a year away, and BYU’s defense leads the way to a win in the desert.
11/30 - Houston – Win
The Coogs hiring of former Tulane HC Willie Fritz might be the most underrated coaching hire of the offseason. Fritz brought Tulane from the depths to a NY6 bowl win and will now have P5 resources in a recruiting hot bed. Unfortunately, Houston’s horrific defense will need more than one year to turn around. BYU rights the ship on Senior Day and closes out the regular season with a win.
Final result: 7-5...
...Ah forget it. BYU is beating Utah. Go Cougs!
