BYU Rankings Review: Maybe No. 8 BYU Isn't Overrated After All

As we approach the halfway point of the season, there are two camps on BYU: they aren’t an incredibly impressive team that finds ways to win games or this is a team that is much better than its scoring margin. The AP voters clearly respect BYU with its no. 8 ranking, but in the past, predictive ratings have been much lower on BYU, which has been used against them time and time again in the “who would be favored” kind of hypotheticals. What all those numbers are saying about BYU today might surprise you.

How the AP Voters view BYU

BREAKING: College Football AP Poll🚨https://t.co/2mmKzLRsos pic.twitter.com/dwIZzLb1jf
— On3 (@On3) October 11, 2026

Despite holding steady at no. 8 in the rankings, BYU gained 100 voting points from last week, signaling that voters view BYU more highly after the way they looked in a standalone spot vs. Iowa State. The ranking also sets up the first top 10 matchup in Lavell Edwards Stadium history when BYU welcomes no. 2 Notre Dame. Should BYU win, they will undoubtedly enter the top five for the first time in 30 years and will be viewed as a legit national championship contender. Should they lose, it gets more interesting.

No. 2 Georgia beat no. 7 Alabama 20-17 last week and Alabama didn’t drop a spot. Should BYU perform similarly, one would expect their ranking to not change much. If they get killed, they probably won’t get the same treatment as Mississippi State who only dropped one spot after losing by 33 points to Alabama at home. Still, the Cougars are thought of highly enough that BYU has far more to gain than to lose against the Irish.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 11

FPI: 14

FEI: 13

Average: 12.6

Despite the lackluster final score against Iowa State, BYU’s domination of the box score still impressed the predictive metrics, as BYU has risen by an average of five spots in the last two weeks. That’s the difference between a nice team and legitimate playoff contender. Fans tend not to like predictive metrics, as they tend to favor big brands with high roster talent despite their win loss-record. Still, they have been used time and time again against BYU to prove they are not what their record says. Despite top 10 AP rankings during 2024 and 2025, predictive models always had BYU’s ceiling somewhere between 15-20. That is no longer the case. 11th is BYU’s highest SP+ rating since 2020 when BYU finished 7th. Still, BYU’s 21.6 rating would put BYU as a nearly 3-point favorite over that 2020 team on a neutral field and a .5 point underdog to their 1984 national championship team. In short, the Computers agree that this BYU team is playoff good.

CORE offense vs. defense through Week 6.

➡️ Right = better offense
⬆️ Up = better defense
🎯 Top right = strong on both sides

Where does your team land? pic.twitter.com/CLc8YsOGb0
— Bill Radjewski | CollegeFootballData.com (@CFB_Data) October 11, 2026

The reason for BYU’s team strength is its balance. The advanced numbers view BYU as the 19th best offense in the country with a borderline top 10 defense. In fact, they also show that BYU has been much better than their final margins. BYU’s actual scoring margin against FBS teams has been around 12-points per game, but have controlled games in such a way that the models would have expected an average margin of 21 points per game. In laymens terms, the scoreboard has not properly shown how good BYU has been and the law of averages suggests that a positive regression to the mean is coming.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume metrics are a measure of how your team performs against it’s schedule relative to how an average top 25 power rated team would be expected to perform against that schedule. Strength of schedule measures the quality of opponents. Strength of record measures how you perform against those opponents.

SP+: 10

FPI (SOR): 11

FEI: 8

Average: 9.6

Week 6 Resume Rankings: 50% SOR / 20% Off Eff / 20% Def Eff / 10% GC https://t.co/ToQ0BHalfb pic.twitter.com/kZ2GZ5cLQW
— Exposing SEC Bias (@overrated_sec) October 12, 2026

We are deep enough into the season where resumes are really starting to take shape, and unsurprisingly, undefeated BYU’s resume is excellent. BYU hasn’t played the toughest schedule to this point, but SP+ and FEI rates them somewhere between 55-65, slightly better than the FBS average. Against that schedule, though, BYU is performing in a way that validates its current ranking. TCU, Arizona, and Iowa State are all top 50 wins, with Arizona rated as high as the top 20 in SP+. All that is to say, that while BYU hasn’t played a truly elite team, they are not untested and have clearly been the better and more talented team than everyone they’ve played.

Conclusion

BYU safety Faletau Satuala against Arizona | BYU Photo

For what feels like the first time in BYU’s 28-4 run, the predictive metrics are catching up to BYU’s resume metrics. It can honestly be argued that the metrics still haven’t fully caught up because BYU has chosen not to keep the pedal down late in games. But what does that mean? BYU can no longer be accused for being lucky to win games. They are winning games because they are simply better than their opponents. When accounting for their talent, coaching, and games played, BYU is a legitimate top 10 team in terms of ranking, resume, and power rating and is clearly the team we thought they would be pre-season.

All of that, though gets put to the test against Notre Dame. SP+ has been remarkably accurate picking BYU games this year, predicting BYU’s total margin through 4 FBS games within a single point. SP+ is also far more bullish on BYU’s chances than the point spread, picking BYU as a 4-point underdog compared to the current 10-point line. While that does not factor in BYU’s running back situation, BYU fans should take confidence that their eyes are not deceiving them. This BYU team is very good in ways that are sustainable, and if things break right, is capable of pulling off a massive upset Saturday.

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