ESPN FPI Predicts Every Game on BYU's 2023 Schedule

While all eyes of the college football world are monitoring the transfer portal and the latest rumors surrounding conference realignment, the 2023 season is slowly inching closer. This week, ESPN released its FPI predictions for the upcoming college football season. BYU, who will be a member of the Big 12 in 2023 for the first time, is expected to go 5-7 according to FPI. The individual win probabilities for each game are found below.

Sam Houston - Saturday, September 2 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 94.2%

Sam Houston moves to the FBS ranks in 2023. Sam Houston has had a lot of success in the FCS ranks, but this is a game that BYU should control and win comfortably.

Southern Utah - Saturday, September 9 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 97.5%

BYU hosts in-state FCS foe SUU in early September. FPI expects BYU to win this game and be 2-0 when it heads on the road for a rematch against Arkansas.

Arkansas - Saturday, September 16 (Fayetteville, AR)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 20.3%

BYU travels to SEC country to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas beat BYU in a shootout in 2022. This will be the first true opportunity for BYU's defense to show improvements vs last season. In 2022, Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson had nearly 400 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against BYU.

Kansas - Saturday, September 23 (Lawrence, KS)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 48.5%

The first conference game of the Big 12 era comes on the road at Kansas. A trip to Lawrence isn't what it used to be - Kansas is coming off its best season in the last decade. This will be a tough game to win on the road. FPI expects this game to be a tossup

Cincinnati - Friday, September 29 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 52.4%

BYU's first conference home game will come against fellow newcomer Cincinnati. The Bearcats will be in their first season without Luke Fickell who took the head job at Wisconsin after the 2022 season.

FPI expects another tossup in this game. This game feels like a must-win game for BYU's bowl aspirations.

BYE WEEK - Saturday, October 7

An early October bye week for the Cougars.

TCU - Saturday, October 14 (Fort Worth, TX)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 16.3%

BYU and TCU renew an old Mountain West rivalry in mid October. This is another tough road game for BYU who is given just a 16.3% chance to leave Fort Worth with a win. 16.3% is the second-lowest FPI win probability on BYU's schedule.

Texas Tech - Saturday, October 21 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 32.3%

BYU will host Texas Tech in late October in what will be a very anticipated matchup. FPI gives Tech the edge in the preseason with a 68% chance to win. Texas Tech is a candidate to win the Big 12 this season.

Texas - Saturday, October 28 (Austin, TX)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 5.0%

Texas is the top Big 12 team in the FPI rankings and a top five team nationally. BYU travels to Texas for a road game in its first Big 12 season. This is the most challenging game on BYU's schedule according to FPI.

West Virginia - Saturday, November 04 (Morgantown, WV)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 36.7%

BYU kicks off its challenging November slate on the road at West Virginia. FPI gives BYU a 37% chance to leave Morgantown with a win. West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat heading into the 2023 season. If WVU gets off to a slow start, he might not be the head coach by the time this game is played.

Iowa State - Saturday, November 11 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 46.4%

A home game against Iowa State in November after two consecutive road games. This is another game that feels like a must-win for BYU's bowl hopes.

Oklahoma - Saturday, November 18 (Provo, UT)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 18.2%

BYU will have the opportunity to host Oklahoma in its first season in the Big 12. The Sooners will be heavy favorites according to the FPI projections.

Oklahoma State - Saturday, November 25 (Stillwater, OK)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 24.0%

BYU wraps up its 2022 conference schedule on the road at Oklahoma State. This game got a little more interesting this week when Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy took a shot at new BYU commit Caleb Etienne. FPI gives BYU just a 24% chance to beat Oklahoma State on the road.

In total, FPI expects BYU to go 4.9-7.1 in its inaugural Big 12 campaign. In this scenario, BYU would fall short of bowl eligibility. Assuming FPI's predictions for BYU are accurate, swing games against Kansas, Cincinnati, and Iowa State will be critical for BYU's bowl hopes.

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