Five Reasons No. 11 BYU Can Escape Cincinnati with a Win

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Another week, another most important game in BYU football history. When BYU walks into Nippert Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bearcats, the stakes are clear: Win and you are a virtual lock to go to the conference championship. Lose, and your hopes are dashed for a second straight year. In many ways, this game closely resembles the Arizona State game last season. Difficult road test against the clear surprise team in the conference. Here are five reason this year will be different for the Cougs.

1. Cincinnati's quarterback struggles against good defenses

BYU cornerback Evan Johnson with an interception returned for a touchdown against ECU | BYU Photo

Brendan Sorsby was white hot to start the season, but as the year progresses, that might have been a function of the quality of defenses he was playing. Against teams outside the top 90 in the country in EPA (4 games), Sorsby completes over 70% of his passes for 11 yards per attempt, 3.5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a pass efficiency rating (PER) of 208.8. Against defenses ranked inside the top 90, Sorsby averages a 50% completion percentage, 6.1 yards per attempt, 1.3 touchdowns, and .7 interceptions for a PER of 115.1. A 115.1 PER would rank as the second worst FBS quarterback in the country over a full season. Simply put, Sorsby has been bad as a passer against the best defenses he’s played against, and BYU ranks inside the top 15 of both defensive EPA and PER allowed this season.

2. Cincinnati’s secondary is among the worst in the country

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Utah | BYU Photo

For as good as BYU’s secondary has been, Cincinnati’s has been their opposite. Here are a few of Cincinnati’s ranks this season in the defensive backfield: 109th in yards allowed, 97th in passing efficiency allowed, 69th in EPA per drop back, and 101st in success rate per drop back. This is exciting news for BYU fans that grew up in the 1980’s. While Bear Bachmeier isn’t known nationally for his passing, he has been unbelievable at every level except deep outside the numbers. On all other throws, Bachmeier completes 72.3% of his passes for over 9 yards per attempt, with 13 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. Teams like Arizona, Utah, and Texas Tech have given Bachmeier problems this season, but outside of those three games, Bachmeier is averaging 318 yards passing since October 1st. As the only thing Cincinnati’s secondary has in common with Tech, Arizona and Utah is the occasional red jersey, we expect Bachmeier to have a big day once again.

3. LJ Martin is looking healthier

BYU RB LJ Martin against Arizona | BYU Photo

Martin was clearly not well against Texas Tech, but he looked to be back to his old self after generating 100+ total yards against TCU last week. While TCU has some similarities to Cincinnati’s defensive secondary, TCU has been significantly better against the run, ranking 34th in rushing success rate to Cincinnati’s 52nd. While the strength of Cincinnati’s defense is their front 7, they have fallen off a cliff over the last three weeks, ranking outside the top 100 in rush yards allowed at nearly 200 per game. Should Martin’s health hold, he has a real good shot at eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark for the season on Saturday.

4. BYU is more likely to succeed in the red zone

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against TCU | BYU Photo

If there is one area that Cincinnati can exploit BYU, it's sustaining drives on the ground. BYU ranks 40th in defensive success rate per rush and 92nd in quality drive rate allowed. All of that ends, though, once opponents reach the red zone. BYU ranks 6th nationally in points per quality drive allowed and 10th nationally in red zone defense. Offensively, BYU ranks 25th in offensive quality drive rate and 34th in red zone touchdown percentage since conference play began. Cincinnati has mirrored BYU’s quality drive and red zone statistics this year, but Cincinnati has started to fade a little bit in the red zone over the last 3 games, ranking 76th nationally in scoring percentage over that span. It’s extremely simple analysis, but if BYU can generate touchdowns in the red zone while Cincinnati is held to field goals, they will have a difficult time keeping up.

5. BYU is much better at generating havoc

BYU safety Faletau Satuala intercepts Rocco Becht against Iowa State | BYU Photo

For better or for worse, Cincinnati is not a team that one would consider chaotic. Cincinnati has the second lowest sack rate in the country this season while their offense had turned it over just once through the month of October. While avoiding chaos is what you want as an offense, it’s not exactly a compliment when talking about one’s defense. Cincinnati ranks last nationally in interception rate (.6%) and 76th in sack rate (5.8%). BYU’s defense ranks 4th (5%) and 26th (7.8%) in those categories, respectively. Now that Sorsby has thrown three interceptions in his last two games, and will play a defense that’s intercepted 39 passes in the last 23 games, we expect BYU to be the team that forces the other into mistakes.