FPI Predicts Every BYU Football Game, Sets Big 12 Title Odds

The college football season is just around the corner. Earlier this week, ESPN FPI released its preseason rankings and individual game probabilities. BYU ranks no. 20 in the initial FPI rankings and is projected to finish 8.5-3.5.

In this article, we'll go over FPI's projections for BYU and what it means for BYU's chances at a special season.

FPI Predicts 2026 BYU Schedule

To start the season, FPI projects BYU to win 8.5 games. Those projects will be updated as the season progresses. BYU finished the 2025 season with a 15.3 rating, meaning FPI would favor BYU by 15.3 points over an average team on a neutral field.

The Cougars start a few points behind the 2025 mark to begin the 2026 season. BYU's initial FPI rating is 13.1. FPI favors BYU in 11 out of 12 games to start the season. According to FPI, BYU will only be the underdog in one game: the Notre Dame game.

Below are the game-by-game predictions.

Utah Tech: 99.0%
Arizona: 73.8%
Colorado State: 94.7%
TCU: 64.9%
Iowa State: 89.0%
Notre Dame: 24.0%
UCF: 67.7%
ASU: 78.9%
Utah: 58.7%
Baylor: 76.4%
Kansas: 71.9%
Cincinnati: 81.7%

Notre Dame, who visits Provo in October, starts the season at no. 3 in FPI. BYU is not scheduled to play another team in the preseason top 25. The top 25 is largely dominated by the SEC who has 8 teams in the top 20. Despite very poor performances in the playoffs over the last two years, the SEC seemingly always gets the benefit of the doubt to start the season.

The Big 12, meanwhile, has an uphill battle to climb. BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams in the top 25.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. Despite being favored in all but one game, FPI gives BYU just a 32.1% chance to win 10 games or more and a 1.3% chance to go undefeated.

6 wins or more - 98.9%
7 wins or more - 94.8%
8 wins or more - 83.0%
9 wins or more - 60.5%
10 wins or more - 32.1%
11 wins or more - 10.3%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.3%

FPI Rankings

BYU ranks second in the Big 12 in the initial FPI rankings, second only to Texas Tech. BYU is scheduled to play two of the other four teams in the top five: Utah and Arizona.

Texas Tech - 10
BYU - 20
Utah - 31
Arizona - 34
Houston - 35
Baylor - 37
TCU - 38
Kansas State - 41
Arizona State - 44
Colorado - 45
Cincinnati - 46
Oklahoma State - 54
Kansas - 55
UCF - 57
West Virginia - 66
Iowa State - 72

Conference Title Hopes

Per FPI, Texas Tech is the strong favorite to win the league. BYU is second to the Red Raiders and well ahead of Utah who has the third best odds to win the league.

Texas Tech - 45.9%
BYU - 16.5%
Utah - 5.9%
Arizona - 4.2%
Houston - 4.1%
TCU - 4.0%
Baylor - 3.2%
Kansas State - 3.1%
Colorado - 2.5%
Arizona State - 2.3%
Cincinnati - 2.1%
Oklahoma State - 1.9%
UCF - 1.7%
Kansas - 1.5%
West Virginia - 0.7%
Iowa State - 0.5%

According to FPI, there is a 62.4% chance that either BYU or Texas Tech will win the league. The other 37.6% is relatively evenly split between the other 14 teams in the league.

College Football Playoff Hopes

FPI gives BYU a 25.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff. That's the second best odds in the conference behind Texas Tech. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

Texas Tech - 57.9%
BYU - 25.7%
Utah - 11.1%
Houston - 7.9%
Arizona - 7.8%
TCU - 6.9%
Baylor - 6.0%
Kansas State - 5.7%
Colorado - 4.3%
ASU - 4.0%
Cincinnati - 4.0%
Oklahoma State - 3.2%
UCF - 2.9%
Kansas - 2.7%
West Virginia - 1.4%
Iowa State - 1.0%

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