Instant Reaction to BYU's Latest Placement in the CFP Rankings

BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker against TCU | BYU Photo

On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff committee unveiled the third CFP rankings of the 2025 season. BYU came in at no. 12, down five spots after their blowout loss to Texas Tech. Here is our instant reaction from BYU's slide down the CFP rankings.

If the season ended today, BYU would be on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff. Below is the updated top 25.

The Updated CFP Top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. Texas Tech
6. Ole Miss
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. BYU
12. Utah
13. Miami
14. Vanderbilt
15. USC
16. Georgia Tech
17. Texas
18. Michigan
19. Virginia
20. Tennessee
21. Illinois
22. Missouri
23. Houston
24. Tulane
25. ASU

1. BYU is an afterthought for the folks at ESPN

If the season ended today, the cut line for at-large teams would be the top 10. Therefore, BYU would be the first team out of the CFP. And the folks at ESPN don't seem to question that, and frankly, they don't seem to care either.

Greg McElroy started off the showing insinuating that the top 10 teams were a foregone conclusion. Later in the show, Rece Davis suggested that the teams ranked 6-10 are probably highly debated. But team number 11? That is BYU, and the Cougars are an afterthought for the folks at ESPN.

The committee is supposed to use strength of schedule and strength of record metrics to inform their rankings.

Strength of record is defined as "The chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule." BYU has a better strength of record than Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon, and Notre Dame. The Cougars also have a better strength of schedule than Oregon and Notre Dame.

And last but certainly not least, BYU has a win over a top 12 team while Oregon and Notre Dame do note.

Based strictly on the data, you would think the crew at ESPN would inquire about BYU's ranking. But that's not the case. Due to simply the logo on the helmet, nobody questions Notre Dame's incredibly weak resume, Alabama's terrible loss to Florida State, or the fact that Oregon hasn't beaten a ranked team.

2. The committee is punishing recent losses

This committee is punishing teams that lose in November, while overlooking losses that happened earlier in the season. Alabama dropped six spots after a loss and Texas dropped seven spots. That could help BYU if one of the teams ranked ahead of them slips up. If Oregon, Notre Dame, Alabama, or Oklahoma lose at least one more game, they will likely slide below BYU in the rankings.

The good news for BYU fans is that it's more likely than not that one of those teams will lose at least one more game. While those teams will be favored in each of their two remaining games, there is a small chance that they will win all eight games. Below are the odds that those four teams will win the rest of their regular season games:

• Notre Dame - 92.3%
• Alabama - 73.5%
• Oregon - 55.2%
• Oklahoma - 44.9%

For BYU to be completely blocked out of the chance to move up, those teams would have to win an eight-game parlay. That's hard to do, even for teams that are favored.

3. BYU would need to be competitive in the Big 12 title game

If BYU is 11-1, they will make the Big 12 title game. Historically, the committee hasn't punished teams for losses in conference title games if they are already in the field (see SMU last year). Therefore, BYU still has a chance to squeeze into the CFP as the Big 12 runner-up if one of the teams ranked ahead of them loses.

But make no mistake, the committee could certainly punish the Cougars out for a poor performance in Arlington. If BYU were to be in the field of 12 going into championship weekend, a poor showing in a rematch against Texas Tech could push the Cougars out of the playoff.

The committee chair explained that conference championship weekend is another data point. He made no promises that teams wouldn't be punished by a poor performance.