Is BYU Football Being Underrated by the AP Poll?

BYU running back LJ Martin against Stanford | BYU Photo

For those keeping track, BYU is 2-0 and outscoring its opponents 96-3, all while moving down in the AP poll. This might frustrate you, perhaps even confuse you. Let's take a step back and look at this rationally. While the voters may not be paying attention to what BYU is doing, data does, and the data has interesting things to say about the strength of this BYU team. Let's dig into how voters viewed BYU before the season began, how they view BYU now, and what BYU’s analytics say about the actual strength of BYU's team and resume.

How the AP Voters view BYU

For those unaware, the AP poll is a collection of 62 voters from around the country that rank their top 25 teams each week. 25 points are awarded to their number 1 team and 1 point for the 25th ranked team. Points are added up for all teams and sorted 1 to 25 to create the AP poll. While BYU is outside the top 25, they have received the 27th-most points after being 26th the week before. So why hasn’t BYU moved up in the rankings? They haven’t, technically, but they actually might be moving in the right direction.

Here is the AP Poll Week 2 summary for BYU. Note that a voter who had them 11th dropped them out altogether after the win vs Stanford. In all likelihood, they were even more ignorant of the Retzlaff transfer than the colleagues who dropped BYU out in Week 1.

Five voters added… pic.twitter.com/zJj1qPxP82

— CougarStats (@CougarStats) September 8, 2025

In the preseason, BYU appeared on 15/62 ballots, including 5 that ranked them in the top 12. It would appear that at least a few voters were surprised to find that Jake Retzlaff didn’t suit up for the Cougars as BYU fell from the top 20 to out of the rankings on 5 ballots. This week, BYU is on 8 new ballots in week 2, and moved up on 3 others for a total of 15 total ballots.

If you aren’t asleep yet, let me summarize. BYU’s preseason ranking was inflated by voters who weren’t paying attention. After 2 games, BYU is still on 15 ballots, but BYU is now appropriately ranked on those ballots whereas they were probably overrated before. After the correction, BYU is actually moving up in voter perception.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

BYU running back LJ Martin against Stanford | BYU Photo

At this point in the season, the AP poll does not matter. To be honest, it never matters until the final poll of the year. As you can see, there are major holes in voter attention span which makes being ranked in the poll a moving target based on personal whim. A better way to track BYU’s progress is to track their predictive metrics.

There are four main predictive metrics you will here a lot: FPI, SP+, FEI, and KFord. Predictive metrics track a team's opponents performance week-to-week to compare the strength of teams relative to the average opponent. For all of these metrics, the FBS average team receives a rating of 0. In SP+, for example, BYU has a rating of 14.4, meaning SP+ would predict that BYU would beat the average FBS team by 14.4 points on a neutral field. While not perfect, especially this early in the season, predictive metrics tend to be extremely accurate over a full season. They will have outliers here and there, but they generally do a good job at predicting game results. For example, SP+ projected BYU to beat Stanford by 25 and they won by 24. That being said, let's look where BYU is in each of these metrics.

SP+: 26

FPI: 18

KFord: 26

FEI: 21

Average: 22.75

Verdict: Based on predictive metrics, BYU is underrated by the AP poll. On average, BYU would be favored by 13.7 points over an average team, good enough for 23rd nationally, mostly on the strength of BYU’s defense. BYU is rated 11th in defense today between the 4 metrics and around the top 50 in offense. In each metric, BYU is projected to be favored in 10 of their 12 games and is predicted to win 9 games by both KFord and FPI. The only games BYU is universally not favored to win today is at Iowa State and Texas Tech.

BYU pic.twitter.com/gUDkV6VZpj

— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) September 8, 2025

What do the resume-based metrics say?

While predictive metrics predict what they think will happen in future games, resume metrics judge how your team performed in the games they’ve already played relative to their strength of schedule. Typically, they compare your team's performance to how the average top 10 team would perform against the same schedule. Lets see how BYU’s resume stacks up so far through two games.

SP+: 23

FPI (SOR): 33

KFord: 41

FEI: 26

Average: 30.75

Verdict: The resume metrics are less favorable to BYU, mostly because BYU has yet to face a top 90 team this season and a lackluster offensive showing vs Stanford left a bit to be desired. Still a top 30 rating given BYU’s schedule is about as good as can be expected. Last season, BYU finished in the top 10 of each of the resume metrics, making it all the more stunning that BYU was entirely left out of playoff discussion. Fortunately, the CFP will be implementing the use of these data-driven resume metrics, so presumably we will hear less about the infamous “eye test.”

Conclusion

BYU WR Cody Hagen scores a touchdown against Portland State | BYU Photo

BYU is about where they should be in the rankings based on what the metrics say. BYU’s overall team strength is certainly that of a top 25 team, but its resume leaves a bit to be desired because of who they’ve played and how the offense performed in week two. BYU's predictive metrics rank them 23rd while their resume is 31st. Average the two, and BYU is ranked 27th, coincidentally exactly where they landed among the AP voters. So while the AP voter logic may be dumbfounding, they accidently put BYU in the right spot for now.

Fortunately, BYU has an entire season to catch the eye of voters. While it’s frustrating that BYU is largely being punished for things outside its control from before the season, BYU’s destiny is in its own hands by just winning football games.