Predicting BYU's CFP Ranking After the Loss to Texas Tech

BYU linebacker Jack Kelly gets a sack against Texas Tech | BYU Photo

BYU suffered its first setback of the season on Saturday against Texas Tech. The Cougars, who were ranked no. 7 going into that game, will certainly drop in the next CFP rankings. In this article, we will predict where BYU will land.

The Floor

The best news for BYU's CFP ranking this week was that Utah came in at no. 13 last week. Since BYU has both a better record than the Utes and a head-to-head win, that sets the floor of BYU's upcoming CFP ranking. BYU will not, and should not, be ranked below Utah.

Last week was a relatively quiet week in terms of upsets in the CFP Top 25. Therefore, there aren't a lot of teams that will fall like BYU will fall (except for ACC teams Lousiville and Virginia who have almost guaranteed the ACC will only get one time in the field).

Unless the committee drops Utah after a bye, BYU's floor will be no. 12 in the CFP rankings.

Floor: #12

The Ceiling

Since the teams ranked 10-12 last week had two losses, you could make the case that BYU should only drop two spots to no. 9. A road loss to a top 10 team shouldn't be the drop BYU too far. Notre Dame has one more loss than BYU and their best win (#19 USC) is slightly worse than BYU's (#13) according to the committee. Therefore, you could really argue that Notre Dame should be the floor for BYU after just one loss.

Will the committee actually do that? Probably not, at least not if history is any indication. The first loss is typically where prior committees have punished BYU the most. Given the respect this committee had for the Big 12 just last week, however, maybe BYU can maintain a spot in the top 10.

Ceiling: #9

Prediction

Last year, the committee dropped BYU clear down to no. 14 when they lost to Kansas. While we don't expect BYU to drop as far as they did last season, we do expect the committee to be a little heavy handed on the ranking. We think BYU will drop below Texas Tech (obviously), Oregon, and Texas. And Texas will probably leapfrog the Cougars as well. We think BYU will land just outside the top 10 heading into this weekend's matchup against TCU.

Prediction: #11