Preview and Prediction for BYU vs Iowa State

BYU is 5-4 and coming off a loss to West Virginia. After a two consecutive road games, the Cougars return home to host the Cyclones. Iowa State is also 5-4 and coming off a loss to Kansas. Today, we'll preview BYU-West Virginia and predict the final score.

Game Information

It's been nearly 50 years since BYU played Iowa State in football. The last matchup came in 1974 when Iowa State beat BYU 34-7. The Cougars are 0-4 all time against the Cyclones. Iowa State is one of the few FBS teams that BYU has never beat.

BYU and Iowa State will kickoff at 8:15 PM Mountain Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

BYU Quarterback Situation

On Wednesday, BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick announced that Jake Retzlaff will start at quarterback for BYU against Iowa State. Retzlaff made his first career start last week against West Virginia, replacing an injured Kedon Slovis.

"Right now, we're planning on Jake starting," Roderick said. "Kedon's improving. He made a few throws today. He's healing but he's not all the way there yet and we're unsure if he'll be available on Saturday or not."

If there was a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing performance against West Virginia, it was the play of quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The JUCO transfer made his first career start at quarterback for the Cougars, throwing for 210 yards on 24/42 passing. He also had 26 rushing yards on 10 carries.

Keys to the Game

Put Rocco Becht in Difficult Situations

Iowa State freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 1,918 yards, 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season. His production drops in road games. At home, he completes 64.4% of his passes and his TD/INT ratio is 7:2. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.4% and his TD/INT ratio is 5:4.

BYU has to put Rocco Becht in difficult situations on third down. If they do, they will have the opportunity to create turnovers.

Win the Turnover Battle

Speaking of turnovers, the turnover margin has determined most of BYU's games this season. In five wins, BYU is +12 in turnover margin. In four losses, BYU is -5 in turnover margin. At the time of this article, BYU is a 7.5-point underdog to the Cyclones. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, they have to win the turnover battle.

BYU and Iowa State have been two of the best teams in the conference in turnover margin. BYU ranks second in the Big 12 in turnover margin while Iowa State ranks third. BYU needs to find a takeaway or two against the Iowa State on defense, and they need to protect the football on offense.

On offense, BYU has struggled to march the full length of the field to score points. The Cougars rank 123rd nationally in total offense. Giving BYU's offense a few short fields by creating turnovers would significantly increase the odds of an upset.

Win on Third Down

On both sides of the ball, BYU has been one of the worst teams in the conference on third down. BYU's offense has converted just 29% of third downs. That ranks dead last in the conference and 126th nationally. To win this game, BYU has to be better on third down. That starts with improved production on first down. BYU has struggled throughout the season to stay ahead of the chains. Iowa State has been one of the better third down defenses in the conference. The Cyclones rank 31st nationally and 4th in the conference in third down defense.

On defense, BYU has struggled to get off the field on third down. BYU ranks 12th in the conference and 102nd nationally in third down defense. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, the defense needs to get off the field and give the BYU offense good field position. Fortunately for BYU fans, Iowa State has struggled on third downs offensively. The Cyclones rank 94th nationally, converting 36% of their third downs on offense.

Score Prediction

BYU has looked like a much different team in home games compared to road games this season. At home, BYU is 4-0. On the road, BYU is 1-4. Iowa State is 2-2 in road games this season.

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff will be making his second career start on Saturday night. With another week of first team reps under his belt, Retzlaff will help the BYU offense move the ball through the air and on the ground. This is a game where Retzlaff's scrambling ability will make a difference in BYU's third down production.

Ultimately, I think the environment at Lavell Edwards Stadium makes the difference in this one.

BYU 24 | Iowa State 20

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