Previewing BYU-Cincinnati with a Cincinnati Insider

BYU is 3-1 as it hosts Cincinnati for the first Big 12 conference game ever in Provo. The Cougars and the Bearcats square off on ESPN at 8:15 PM MDT on Friday night. We caught up with Cincinnati insider Russ Heltman to preview this matchup.

Q: What is the level of concern for the offense after last week's showing against Oklahoma?

On a scale from one to five, I'd gauge it at a three right now. The offense is moving the ball very well through four games (488 YPG, 14th nationally), but the red zone is where the wheels have fallen off.

The offensive line has lost far too many one-on-one battles in that area and it has caused malfunctions. Cincinnati is 25th in red-zone possesions (19) and 118th in TD rate (47.4%). That touchdown rate needs to go up to quell concerns and BYU could be a good place to get right if they can get enough trips into that territory (BYU is 54th in RZ TD rate, 34th in trips allowed).

Q: What would you say are the strengths and weaknesses of this 2023 Cincinnati team?

A: The top strength (by a significant amount in my opinion) is the defensive front led by Dontay Corleone, Eric Phillips, and Daniel Grzesiak. That group along with linebackers like Jack Dingle and Dorian Jones have been some of the most consistent players on the roster. They did a great job slowing down Oklahoma's rushing attack last week, while containing Dillon Gabriel in the pocket.

The biggest weakness right now is a gelling offensive line. Cincinnati doesn't have much depth across the five protection spots and just gave up 31(!!) pressures to Oklahoma. They struggle with blitz looks at the second level as the only full-time starter graded over 65 overall on PFF is right guard Luke Kandra (80.1). Backup Phillip Wilder (70.2) may get more run at one of the tackle spots after posting a season-high 52 snaps last week.

Run blocking in the wide zone has gone well, but the quick pressure in the passing game has been a problem

Q: How is the overall health of the roster? Are there any injuries you're monitoring this week?

A: Roster health looks pretty good based on how they entered Fall camp. The only big injury of note is starting cornerback Sammy Anderson has missed most of the season with a head injury and his status is up in the air for this game.

Defensive back Deshawn Pace returns for this game after violating team rules and missing the Oklahoma game.

Q: Cincinnati wins this game if _______. BYU wins this game if ________.

A: Cincinnati wins if it can give Emory Jones time to find the open read or the open rushing lane. Jones has proven he can be a top-30 college quarterback with a modicum of time to operate. The Bearcats have run the ball relatively well against every opponent, but the passing game has been far less consistent.

BYU wins if Cincinnati continues to shoot itself in the foot on red zone chances. The Cougars have done a pretty good job of keeping offenses from getting there - it should play a huge role in a game featuring just a two-point betting spread. The Cougars will also win if Kedon Slovis keeps carrying the offense. BYU's proven it can score without a strong rushing attack, if it keeps Slovis upright (six sacks allowed, 45th nationally).

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