Projected Spread for Every BYU Football Game in 2026

Earlier this week, ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly released the initial SP+ rankings for the 2026 college football season. The Cougars cracked the top 20 in the initial rankings. SP+ is a combined efficiency rating that essentially measures how much a team would be favored against an average team on a neutral field.

BYU's SP+ rating, for example, is +15.5. In other words, the Cougars would be favored by +15.5 over an average team on a neutral field. A similar methodology is used to calculate betting spreads, except the home team is usually given three points for home-field advantage. In this article, we'll project what the betting spread might be if the games on BYU's schedule were played today. The SP+ ratings will be used for BYU and all 12 opponents.

These numbers will change when the season begins and actual data is collected on these teams. According to this data, BYU would be favored in every conference game except one.

vs Utah Tech - 9/5/26

Utah Tech is in the FCS rankings and, therefore, was not included in the SP+ Rankings. BYU will be heavily favored in this game.

vs Arizona - 9/12/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -8)

For the third time in as many years, BYU will play Arizona in Big 12 play. Arizona is ranked fifth in the Big 12 and 30th nationally in SP+.

If this game was played today, the Cougars would probably be favored by a touchdown over the Wildcats. This is one of the more challenging games on BYU's schedule according to SP+.

@ Colorado State - 9/19/26

Projected Spread: (BYU - 21)

Colorado State, at least on paper, is the worst FBS team that BYU will face in 2026. BYU will be favored going into this game. The preseason efficiency metrics suggest BYU might be favored by as much as three touchdowns.

@ TCU - 10/3/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -3)

TCU will be seeking some revenge after last year's blowout loss in Provo. Playing in Fort Worth has been, frankly, a nightmare for BYU for the last two decades. This critical game on BYU's schedule will probably be close to a tossup. BYU would probably be favored by a field goal if the game kicked off today.

vs Iowa State - 10/10/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -17)

No team in the league lost more to the transfer portal than Iowa State. The Cyclones will be unrecognizable from the team that BYU beat in Ames last season. As such, Iowa State has fallen all the way to 64th in the SP+ rankings. According to SP+, and factoring in home-field advantage, the Cougars should be heavily favored in this matchup. It's very rare for BYU to be favored by 17 points or more against a P4 team. Last year, BYU was favored by 14 points going into the UCF game.

vs Notre Dame - 10/17/26

Projected Spread: (Notre Dame -7)

When the mighty fighting Irish come to Provo, they could be a top three team. Up to this point of the season, BYU likely will have been favorite in every game on the schedule. That will not be the case against the Fighting Irish. Per SP+, Notre Dame would be favored by a touchdown in Provo.

@ UCF - 10/24/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -10)

By the numbers, BYU would probably be favored by 10 points against UCF. However, those numbers don't account for two time zones of travel and having just played an anticipated game against Notre Dame. 10 points feels like a large line that would probably shrink a few points.

vs Arizona State - 10/31/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -12)

BYU and Arizona State played in an instant classic in 2024 that turned into a Big 12 championship play-in game. The Cougars and the Sun Devils will rematch for the first time since that game, this time in Provo. Arizona State comes into the season ranked 42nd in SP+.

SP+ is not very high on the Sun Devils because of the turnover on that roster. In this author's opinion, a 12-point spread would be quite surprising. Kenny Dillingham usually gets the most out of his roster. While we think BYU will be favored, we don't think it will be by 12 points.

@ Utah - 11/7/26

Projected Spread: (Tossup)

If the rivalry game was played today, SP+ would have BYU-Utah as a tossup. History suggests this game will be close. Last year, this game determined who would play Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game.

vs Baylor - 11/14/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -14)

Dave Aranda is on the hot seat going into the 2026 season. Frankly, Aranda might not be the head coach by the time the Bears come to Provo. The Bears are all the way down to 51st nationally in SP+ and the Cougars are projected to be favored by multiple scores in this game.

@ Kansas - 11/21/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -8)

Kansas has been BYU's kryptonite in the Big 12. The Cougars are 0-2 agains the Jayhawaks and looking for their first win over Kansas since joining the Big 12. Without multi-year starting quarterback Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks are projected to take a step back.

vs Cincinnati - 11/28/26

Projected Spread: (BYU -14)

Cincinnati lost star quarterback Brennan Sorsby to Texas Tech. The new-look Bearcats will come to Provo in what will likely be a cold late November game. The Bearcats are projected to take a big step backwards without Sorbsy and other key players, so SP+ favors BYU by two touchdowns.