Cougs Daily

Rankings Update: BYU's Last Six-Game Stretch Among the Most Difficult in the Country

Joe Wheat|
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts warms up for the Cincinnati game
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts warms up for the Cincinnati game | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

It’s funny to look back at old game-by-game predictions for how BYU would perform in the six-game gauntlet they just endured. Not even the most blue-goggled among us could have predicted they would go 5-1 against the most difficult stretch in program history. It’s been a fun ride, but still BYU finds itself outside the at-large pool going into the final week of the season. Is that fair? Here is what BYU’s metrics say.

How the AP Voters view BYU

BYU held fast at 11th this week as no one in the top 14 lost Saturday. The distribution of voters continues to tighten as well with 70% of voters slotting BYU between 10 and 11 on their ballot. Based on voting points, though, it’s clear that there is some separation between the top 11 and everyone else. 155 voting points separate #11 BYU and #8 Oklahoma compared to 138 points separating BYU and #12 Vanderbilt. Perhaps this week, the committee will likewise consider elevating BYU into the next tier of resume valuation.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 16

FPI: 15

KFord: 18

FEI: 15

Average: 16 (Prior week: 15.25)

This was a weird case where BYU’s expected point margin over average increased by nearly a full point from last week, but their average ranking went down because of teams moving around them. Either way, this has been one of BYU’s strongest power rating years ever. BYU ranks 15th in FEI, sandwiched between teams like Oklahoma and Ole Miss who are universally considered playoff teams. What’s most impressive, and perhaps what is dragging them down, is that they are a perfectly balanced team. BYU is considered to have the 20th best offense in the country and 15th best defense on average. Why would that drag them down? BYU is good at everything but isn’t really elite at anything. They don’t have a top 5 defense like Oklahoma or a top 5 offense like Ole Miss, but they also don’t have a gaping hole on the other side of the ball like those teams do. Unfortunately, the committee appears to be a sucker for a top 10 ranking in something.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 9

FPI (SOR): 6

KFord: 6

FEI: 6

Average: 6.75 (Prior: 7)

It feels sad to write this section because it is so abundantly clear that BYU’s CFP ranking is 4-5 spots lower than its resume metrics say it should be, and no one will address it. The Committee won’t even evaluate BYU in the same tier as the teams currently in the playoff. But that argument is for another article. Today, we want to celebrate what BYU has accomplished on the field over the last two months.

Everyone knew that the stretch from Arizona to Cincinnati would be the one of the toughest stretches in BYU history. It took BYU from the 100th toughest schedule in the country to the 28th toughest, and to be honest, it was even more brutal than anticipated. The average FEI rating of teams faced during that stretch was 22.8, with all opponents inside the top 40 and 3 inside the top 25. Of teams ranked ahead of BYU in the CFP, only Alabama (18.2) and Oklahoma (17.5) have had a tougher six-game stretch at any point this season. BYU just lived through the “grind of an SEC schedule” that people love to talk about and came out the other side 5-1. Maybe BYU should start getting the SEC bump too.

Conclusion

BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts warms up for the Cincinnati game
BYU wide receiver Chase Roberts warms up for the Cincinnati game | BYU Photo

We expect BYU to stay at 11 in this week’s CFP rankings, though their resume certainly suggests they should be higher. Unfortunately, that’s not what these rankings are based on. No one really knows what they are based on, to be honest. If we had to guess, though, BYU is being held back for two reasons: they are 14th in game control (reportedly the committee’s favorite metric) and they were not competitive in the only game they’ve played against a projected playoff team. That might be fair or it might not, but that is reality. Simply put, BYU needs help to make the field as an at-large and should just remove all doubt by winning the Big 12 outright. Otherwise, the tiger is every BYU fan’s favorite animal this week.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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