Cougs Daily

6 Takeaways From the First Half of BYU's Highly Anticipated 2026 Season

The BYU basketball program is halfway through its season
Joe Wheat|
BYU star AJ Dybantsa against Arizona State
BYU star AJ Dybantsa against Arizona State | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

The calendar has turned to January, and BYU fans have started to change the channel from the top 10 football team to the top 10 basketball team. It’s a difficult life to live, but they make it work. If you’ve been locked in to the gridiron and haven’t been able to keep up with the generational stuff happening on the hardwood, we have you covered. Here are six things we have learned from the first half of the most anticipated BYU basketball season of our lives.

1. BYU basketball has come a loooooooong way in the last 3 years

The year is 2023. BYU just finished 7-9 in WCC play, ranked 77th in KenPom, and were led in minutes and scoring by Rudi Williams. At the time, one of BYU’s biggest recruiting wins in recent memory was Caleb Lohner, who is now retired from the NFL. Fast forward just three years and BYU is 14-1, 15-3 in their last 18 Big 12 games, ranked 10th in KenPom, and features the potential number one overall pick, who might be one of three first round picks on the roster. In just three years, BYU went from losing at home to South Dakota and Pepperdine to beating a Big 12 opponent by 28 points on a random Wednesday.

Simply put, this iteration of BYU basketball is a different species of athleticism than the one we saw three years ago, and perhaps no stat illustrates that better than dunks. In 2023, 2.9% of BYU’s two-point attempts came from dunks (315th nationally). In 2026, BYU ranks 32nd nationally in dunk percentage at 12.4%. BYU has never finished in the top 65 before this season. There haven’t been many times in BYU history where they’ve had a player who can take a defender off the dribble and windmill dunk in the half court, but such is the life of the modern BYU fan.

2. BYU has the best offensive trio in the country

Out of 365 division one teams, BYU is only one in the country with three players averaging at least 17 points per game. At his current average, Rob Wright III would be the leading scorer on roughly 240 other college basketball teams, but he ranks third at BYU. Richie Saunders, who was First Team All Big 12 last season, has increased his scoring output by three points per game so far this season, but is getting somewhat outshined because he is playing alongside the nation’s leading scorer in AJ Dybantsa. BYU’s big three outscored a P5 opponent 81-76 on Wednesday, a feat we may never see again, at least until Saturday. As we expected, BYU has three All-American players who are just now hitting their stride together. If they stay healthy, BYU will be on the short list of national title contenders.

3. I don’t think BYU’s lack of bench scoring will be an issue… but I am keeping my eye on it.

BYU fans have become accustomed to a 10-man rotations with very little drop-off from the starters to the bench. This year is different. Last season, the Cougar bench accounted for nearly 40% of BYU’s scoring compared to just 15.6% this year, one of the lowest in the country. While not amazing, that’s also not necessarily a bad thing. Historically, rotations tighten in March, which BYU is well positioned to do. But first, you have to get that far. With BYU’s current roster build, they might not be as equipped to absorb a loss to one of its stars, which becomes more likely with higher usage. That said, if BYU can have some good injury luck, BYU is better positioned to make a run than in previous years with a small rotation that is willing to rebound and defend.

4. BYU is better when they are passing

Last season, BYU was among the best offenses in the country because of their playmaking and ball movement, ranking 32nd nationally with a 59.6% assist rate. BYU got off to a slow start in that category, notching a sub 50% assist rate in 5 of their first 7 games, as a largely brand new roster was figuring out their chemistry. As is expected with three high-level scorers, it felt like BYU’s big three was taking turns in isolation, and BYU’s offense suffered because of it. It’s clear that this is a different basketball team when they are passing vs when they are not. This season, BYU’s average margin of victory with a sub 50% assist rate is 6.2 points per game and over 30 points per game when their assist rate is above 50%. Fortunately, this roster is starting to flow together, recording above a 54% assist rate in six straight games. No surprise, BYU is averaging 95 points per game over that stretch.

5. BYU has taken a huge step forward on defense

Last year’s magical run came to an end because BYU was ranked sub 80 in defensive efficiency. It seems clear that BYU has taken a sizeable step forward in that regard, ranking 17th in KenPom defensive efficiency so far this season. BYU is wreaking havoc on opposing offenses this season, ranking 35th in block rate and 20th in steal rate. Best of all, they do it without fouling, ranking 11th in free throw rate. Last season, BYU only had one player in the top 100 in defensive rating. This year, BYU has 2 in the top 30, led by Keba Keita who ranks 6th. If BYU can keep up this level of defensive disruption, they will be competitive, if not dominant, in every game they play.

6. This BYU team is every bit as good as we expected them to be

We expected this to be the best BYU basketball team of all time, and so far they’ve delivered. Based on KenPom, 2026 BYU would be at least a 5 point favorite over any BYU team of the last 25 years thanks to length and athleticism on the defensive end that BYU has never seen before. BYU is a virtual lock for the tournament with a 6-1 record in quad one and two games before January 10th. BYU didn’t record its first quad one win last season until January 20th. Simply put, this team rocks. Every game must-watch television. If they fall down by 20, they will most certainly come back. If they are up 20, they turn into the Showtime Lakers. In every game, AJ Dybantsa will do something that is worth every dollar spent on the ticket while Richie Saunders and Rob Wright III shoot well over 45% from 3 as a supplement. If you haven’t seen this team in person yet, go. We may never see another one like it as long as we live.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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