Score Prediction: BYU Football's Playoff Hopes Hinge on Road Date at Iowa State

BYU RB LJ Martin against East Carolina | BYU Photo

When the season began, this looked like the hardest game on BYU’s schedule. Don’t let Iowa State's back-to-back losses fool you, it still might be. Iowa State is a Big 12 power broker that is fighting for its conference title hopes. If they can’t pull out a win, their season very well could be over. BYU, meanwhile, has its undefeated season and playoff hopes on the line against an Iowa State team capable of beating them. With that said, let's get to know the foe from Ames, Iowa.

When Iowa State has the ball

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) during the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

BYU fans should be familiar with the names Rocco Becht and Abu Sama, as the backfield tandem combined for 323 total yards and 4 touchdowns against the Cougars back in 2023. Two years later, and they are still one of the best backfield groups in the Big 12. Still, Iowa State's offense has taken somewhat of a step back this season after their wide receiver room was raided by the Houston Texans. Becht has filled the void left by Jayden Higgens and Jaylin Noel with a pair of gargantuan tight ends. 6’7 Benjamin Brahmer and 6’6 Gabe Burkle are first and third on the team in receptions, averaging 11.3 yards per catch and they pose matchup nightmares for secondaries that can’t match up with their size.

The word “balanced” would aptly describe a Cyclone offense that ranks 43rd in success rate per rush and 47th in success rate per dropback. In a lot of ways, Iowa State's offense mirrors BYU's: run the football over 55% of the time and supplement that with a steady dose of play action pass. Rocco Becht averages 10.6 yards per attempt compared to just 6.8 yards per attempt without it. On the ground, Iowa State averages 4.7 yards per attempt, led by Abu Sama III who averages 5.4 yards per carry and 3.75 yards after contact. Most of all, Iowa State moves the football well, ranking 19th quality drive rate. Similar to BYU, though, Iowa State has struggled converting those drives into points, ranking 84th in points per quality drive and 120th in red zone scoring. Getting RB2 Carson Hansen back from injury should help with that, but the cyclones have their hands full against a BYU defense that ranks in the top 11 in pass efficiency allowed, red zone scoring allowed, opponent drives that end in a TD or field goal.

When BYU has the ball

Iowa State Cyclones defensive back Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman (20) tackles Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) in the first quarter of the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Oct. 4, 2025. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When healthy, Iowa State has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference. Unfortunately, they can’t stay healthy. Iowa State has five defensive starters listed as “out” or “questionable” on its injury report including four members of the secondary. That could be a big issue for an Iowa State secondary that is allowing 9.4 yards per attempt over their last 2 games. That doesn’t seem to be an anomaly, as Iowa State’s defense ranks 77th in success rate per dropback, 59th in passing efficiency offense, and have the 4th worst coverage grade in college football according to PFF. Overall, Iowa State is just kind of ok at everything on defense. The Cyclones rank 57th in total defense, 66th in turnovers forced, 71st in defensive success rate, 49th in available yards gained, and 46th in expected points added per play (EPA). Despite those rankings, Iowa State rank 26th in points allowed per game due to their somewhat boom or bust nature.

70% of Iowa State drives faced have end in either a three-and-out or points. To score, though, Iowa State is going to force you to drive the length of the field. The shortest touchdown drive allowed by the Cyclones this season has been 52 yards with the average TD drive spanning 73.3 yards. 75% of touchdown drives allowed by ISU covered 70 yards or more with 38% covering 80 yards or more. When opponents pick up at least one first down, they score on over 50% of those drives. Driving the field hasn’t been a huge issue for BYU, as the Cougars rank 26th in offensive available yards gained and 13th nationally in quality drive rate. The Cougars have had just 6 three-and-outs on 74 total drives this season, meaning if Iowa State's defensive trends hold true, BYU should be able to put up some points.

To stop BYU, Iowa State will need to continue to be proficient in two areas: the run and play action pass. Iowa State has had their moments against the run this season, giving up an average of 130 yards rushing in 5 of their 6 FBS games. The 6th game, though, was the issue as they gave up 260 yards rushing to Cincinnati. Because of their success against the run, Iowa State has been able to sit back in coverage against the play action pass, leading to a 111.3 pass efficiency rating (PER) on play action compared to a 144.3 PER without it. In laymen’s terms, Iowa State plays like a top 10 secondary on play action vs a bottom 30 secondary without it.

Prediction

BYU RB LJ Martin against East Carolina | BYU Photo

While it’s certainly uncommon for a top 15 team to be an underdog against an unranked team, there’s certainly an argument for it this week. BYU is on the road following an emotional rivalry win facing an Iowa State team that is arguably a missed pass interference call away from being in the top 20 themselves. Unfortunately, Iowa State just might be too injured on defense to slow down BYU. While the Cyclones have been awesome against play action, they have faced one quarterback this season ranked in the top 45 on play action passes. Bear Bachmeier ranks 3rd nationally. On the ground, Iowa State was bullied by the only top 40 run blocking offensive line they faced (Cincinnati, 6th). BYU ranks 5th in run blocking per PFF. Iowa State is going to have to pick what they want to stop, because the numbers suggest they won’t be able to stop both BYU’s run and passing attacks. If they can't stop either, this could be another game where Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin combine for 375 total yards.

On offense, Iowa State will move the ball methodically on a decent number of drives, but that won’t matter unless those drives are converted into points, and BYU is the fourth best defense in the country in the red zone. In the end, I expect a low possession game featuring two teams that like to play ball control. BYU, however, is the better of the two teams at converting those possessions into points. BYU ranks 8th nationally in net drive success (drives that end in a TD or FG) to Iowa State’s 49th. If that holds true Saturday, BYU will walk out of Ames 8-0.

BYU 27-20 Iowa State