SP+ Predicts BYU's First Road Test at ECU

After a week off, BYU will take on East Carolina on Saturday night in the Cougars' first road test of the season. The game at ECU is BYU's first away game in a two-game road stand that ends with a conference opener at Coloardo. SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-East Carolina.

SP+ gives BYU a 72% chance to win with an expected final score of 31-21. SP+ is higher on BYU's chances than the oddsmakers who favor BYU by 6.5 or 7.5 depending on the sportsbook. SP+ is aligned with FPI, giving BYU a 72% chance to win.

BYU comes into this matchup with the nation's top defense. However, the Pirates will be the best offense BYU has faced by a wide margin. The Pirates are one-dimensional: they almost primarily move the ball through the air. But they elect to throw it because that is their strength.

BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill has talked about BYU's improved pass rush and the proof has been in the pudding so far this season. This game against ECU will be the first time BYU's pass defense is tested. The Cougars have faced off against two run-heavy offenses to start the season. The Pirates are the opposite of that.

Since ECU could test the BYU defense, this could also be the first test for BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier. It will be Bachmeier's first road start and he could be asked to push the ball downfield more in a close game.

After the Stanford game, BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick noted that BYU will need to be more aggressive on offense to win games against better opponents.

"We've been fairly efficient so far [in the passing game]," Roderick said. "We just, we haven't really unleashed it yet and we haven't needed to be as aggressive as we'll have to be in some other games. So obviously the first game we didn't need it at all. The second game here we were in control, so we wanted to be super smart, and as we as we progress it's going to open up more and more...you get in conference play, you're not going to win just being conservative all the time. So it's a work in progress. Bear is a work in progress and our offense is as well."

More BYU Football Coverage