Sunday Notebook as BYU Still Controls Its Own Destiny After UCF Loss

On Saturday, no. 2 BYU lost in heartbreaking fashion to UCF on the road. It was BYU's first loss to an unranked opponent since 2024. Almost 24 hours later, we're unveiling our thoughts with another edition of the Sunday Notebook.

BYU controls its own destiny

The good news is that BYU earned some wiggle room with a win over Notre Dame. The bad news is BYU used most, if not all, of that wiggle room with a loss to UCF. BYU fell from no. 2 to no. 8 with a loss to UCF. In other words, if the season ended today, BYU would host a game in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. All is not lost and BYU can still accomplish all of its goals this season.

BYU is 6-1 with a win over a top five team in Notre Dame. If the Cougars win out, they will be in the College Football Playoff, and it's very likely that they will be in the Big 12 championship game as well.

Not only that, but an unbeaten finish could land BYU in the top five or six of the final CFP rankings. In that scenario, BYU could have three wins over top 25 teams (Notre Dame, Utah, and Arizona) including two wins over top 10 teams.

There's another scenario where BYU could narrowly make the playoff as an at-large at 10-2, but it seems unlikely given BYU's history with the College Football Playoff committee. However, there is still a path to the Big 12 championship game at 10-2. More on that in a moment.

It's Looking Like a Three-Game Schedule the Rest of the Way

Over the next five games, BYU is scheduled to play both Arizona State and Baylor at home. The Sun Devils are one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and they could be starting their third-string quarterback against BYU. Baylor fired Dave Aranda on Sunday after back-to-back losses. We expect BYU to win both of those games comfortably. That means BYU is going to face three real tests to close out of the regular season: at Utah, at Kansas, and vs Cincinnati.

The Evan Johnson Injury Comes at a Bad Time

On UCF's two-point conversion in double overtime, star BYU cornerback Evan Johnson suffered what appeared to be a pretty serious ankle injury. Johnson had to be carried off the field at the end of the game.

Johnson is really important to this team and his injury comes at a bad time. Over the next few weeks, BYU will face some great wide receivers from Arizona State and Utah. If Johnson is unable to return for those games, BYU's cornerback depth will face its biggest test to date.

BYU's Defense Has a Takeaways Problem

The last time BYU forced a turnover was in the first half of the TCU game. The Cougars are now tied for 75th in turnovers generated this season. The lack of turnovers has really reduced BYU's margin for error in these close games.

The defense has been very good in a lot of ways, but the UCF game was a very poor performance. Turnovers can cover up a lot of mistakes, and since BYU didn't generate a turnover against UCF, their mistakes were really exposed.

It might be too late in the season to fix this problem, but if the Cougars can manage even one takeaway per game the rest of the way, it will take some pressure off both the offense and the defense.

The top of the Big 12 is going to cannibalize itself

The Big 12's hopes to get multiple teams in the playoff took a major hit on Saturday when Texas Tech and BYU lost. More carnage is coming for the top of the league over the next month. There are five teams with one loss or less in conference play. All of the top five teams play at least one other team in the top five.

Utah (4-0)
BYU (3-1)
Arizona (3-1)
Texas Tech (3-1)
Oklahoma State (3-1)

Over the next month, BYU will play Utah. Arizona will face both Texas Tech and Utah, and Texas Tech will travel to take on Oklahoma State. The Utes also have to play at Cincinnati next week.

If the next month is as hectice as last Saturday, there could be at least one two-loss team in the Big 12 championship game.

LJ Martin can't get back soon enough

It goes without saying that BYU's offense is simply not the same without LJ Martin in the lineup. Preston Rex, Journee Tonga, and Sione Moa have done an admirable job filling in during Martin's absence, but Martin is the only game-changing running back right now on BYU's roster.

Beating Utah in Rice Eccles is difficult regardless of the season, but beating a top 10 Utah team on the road is going to require BYU's best running back to be on the field.

If BYU responds the right way, this could be the best thing that happens to this team

Parents always want their kids to learn hard lessons by observing others, but the stubborn kids have to learn it themselves the hard way. It would have been ideal for BYU to look around the country and learn that even top 10 teams can lose on any given Saturday.

Unfortunately, BYU had to learn that lesson the hard way. However, if BYU responds the right way to this loss, it could be the best thing that happens to them this season. Nick Saban has said that some of his best teams needed to lose to avoid the trap of complacency.

BYU has not played to its potential this season. Perhaps a loss will kick this team into gear and allow them to play at their best. Last year, BYU responded to the Texas Tech loss by playing its best game the following week against TCU. The Cougars need to respond a similar this week and take care of a bad ASU team.

A win on Saturday would setup a top 10 matchup between BYU and Utah the following week.

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