The Bye Week Provided Clarity on BYU's Path to the Big 12 Championship Game

BYU defensive end Viliami Po'uha against Iowa State | BYU Photo

During the bye week, BYU's path to the Big 12 title game became more clear. First, Houston suffered a second conference loss. Houston isn't officially eliminated from the Big 12 title race since they only have two conference losses. However, there are very few ways for Houston to play in Arlington at this point even if they win out.

Then, Utah took down Cincinnati, handing the Bearcats their first conference loss of the 2025 season. In this article, we will break down BYU's path to the Big 12 title game with four games to go.

At minimum, BYU needs to go 2-2 over the next four games to be in the Big 12 title race. We will breakdown BYU's chances if they go 4-0, 3-1, or 2-2.

1. Win And You're In

Now that BYU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12, the most obvious path to the Big 12 title game would be to win out. If BYU goes 4-0 over the next four games, they will be in the Big 12 title game no matter what (and they will be in the College Football Playoff as well).

However, FPI gives BYU only a 16% chance to go 4-0. It's more likely than not that BYU will lose one of its final four games.

2. 3-1 Gets You In the Title Game

11-1 is BYU's most likely outcome at this point of the season according to FPI. Fortunately for BYU, 3-1 still would get BYU into the Big 12 title game. That wasn't always the case before this past weekend's results. But since Cincinnati and Houston have lost, BYU will be in the Big 12 title game at 11-1 no matter what.

If BYU goes 3-1, it means they will have handed either Texas Tech or Cincinnati a second loss. So BYU would either have sole possession of first place or be tied for first place with Cincinnati. In either scenario, BYU would play for the championship game.

While BYU would be in at 3-1, their opponent in the championship game would change depending on which team beats BYU. Regardless, a rematch in the Big 12 title game would be very likely. Whether it's BYU-Texas Tech, BYU-Cincinnati, or BYU-Utah, those are by far the most likely conference championship game in this scenario.

If BYU loses to Tech and beats everyone else, it would be a BYU-Texas Tech rematch in the title game. If Cincinnati is the team to beat BYU and the Bearcats win their other games, it would be a BYU-Cincinnati rematch.

There are a few scenarios where BYU could rematch Utah in the title game as well.

3. 2-2 Will Depend on Tiebreakers

If BYU goes 2-2 to finish out the season, there are almost too many tiebreaker scenarios to consider with so many games left to play. For the purposes of this article, we'll keep it simple: 2-2 is a coin flip but probably doesn't get BYU in.

The best-case scenario for BYU would be a 7-2 tiebreaker with Utah and only Utah. BYU's head-to-head win over Utah would give them the edge in that scenario.

If last year is any indication, a 7-2 record would likely mean a three-way or even a four-way tie. BYU could win a three-way tie between Cincinnati, Utah, and BYU if BYU beats Cincinnati or if BYU's conference opponent win percentage surpasses Utah's and Cincinnati's (it's going to be very, very close).

To improve BYU's chances to win a 7-2 tiebreaker, BYU would need some help from teams like Arizona and TCU to hand teams like Cincinnati and Arizona State more losses.