What BYU's Top 10 CFP Ranking Means for Its Playoff Positioning

On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff committee unveiled its new top 25 rankings. After losing to no. 3 Utah, the Cougars dropped only one spot to no. 10 in the CFP rankings. If the season ended today, BYU would be firmly in the College Football Playoff. In this article, we break down everything you need to know about BYU's playoff hopes.

The importance of Notre Dame's win over Miami can't be understated

Last Saturday, no. 11 Notre Dame took down no. 1 Miami. From the perspective of BYU's at-large playoff hopes, the importance of Notre Dame's win cannot be understated. Notre Dame moved all the way from no. 11 to no. 5 in the CFP rankings, giving BYU a win over a top five team. How many teams in college football have wins over teams in the top five? Only four:

Auburn (over Georgia)
Tennessee (over Alabama)
Georgia (over Alabama)
BYU (over Notre Dame)

BYU's win over Notre Dame is the reason it was ranked higher than Kentucky (11), Texas Tech (12), Wake Forest (13), and Houston (14). The Cougars have never received the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee. The difference between this BYU resume and BYU's past resumes is that win over the Fighting Irish.

The teams that are the biggest threats to BYU

Since BYU is currently in the projected playoff, it's more important to evaluate the threats behind them in the rankings than it is to find ways for BYU to move up in the rankings, although moving up is certainly possible. More on that in a moment.

The committee moved Indiana from no. 4 to no. 9 during their bye week. They have proven they will make extreme changes in their rankings. For that reason, all the teams around BYU are threats.

This Saturday is massively important for the teams ranked behind BYU. No. 13 Wake Forest travels to Dallas to take on SMU. SMU is the only real test remaining on Wake Forest's schedule. They take on Georgia Tech and Duke to finish the regular season. Wake Forest may be the least dangerous threat to BYU, as the Demon Deacons don't have a top 25 win and they lost by multiple scores to the only projected playoff team they faced (Miami). FPI gives Wake Forest a 59% chance to beat SMU on Saturday.

Then there is no. 11 Kentucky. It would really, really benefit BYU if Kentucky dropped at least one more game. The Wildcats are a threat to leapfrog BYU in the rankings if they win out. They host Florida and Louisville to end the season, and they have an opportunity for a resume-building win on the road at no. 22 Missouri. FPI believes a loss is likely - FPI gives Kentucky just a 9% chance to win its last three games.

Next, we have two Big 12 teams in no. 12 Texas Tech and no. 14 Houston. The Red Raiders have a chance to earn a road win over a top 25 team this week when they take on no. 25 Oklahoma State. If Texas Tech finishes 11-1 and makes it to the Big 12 title game over BYU, they are a legitimate threat to leapfrog BYU in the rankings. All BYU fans should cheer for Oklahoma State this weekend.

Then there is Houston. Houston will only finish with a top 25 win if Oklahoma State beats Texas Tech. Since the Cougars have two losses, like BYU, it's unlikely they will leapfrog BYU in the rankings unless they make it to the Big 12 title game and win. Houston's remaining schedule is Colorado, West Virginia, and Baylor, so they don't have a chance to impress the committee with a top 25 win.

There are also blueblood threats like USC and Oregon that could threaten BYU if they win out. USC, in particular, has a chance to skyrocket up the rankings with a road win over no. 8 Indiana this week. USC has the chance to earn two top 10 wins over Indiana and UCLA.

The opportunities to move up in the rankings

If this college football season is any indication, BYU will have a chance to move up in the CFP rankings. There has been chaos virtually every Saturday. Moving up is important because if BYU is in the 10-11 range before conference championship Saturday, BYU fans will be sweating out the results of the championship games. For example, a team outside of the playoff like Wake Forest could steal a playoff berth by beating Miami. If BYU can sneak up even a spot or two over the next three weeks, they can relax on championship Saturday.

Here are BYU's best chances to move up in the rankings:

No. 9 Indiana plays USC, Washington, and Purdue to end the season; the Hoosiers have a 58% chance to win out.
No. 8 Tennessee finishes the season with games against Texas A&M, LSU, and Vanderbilt. The Vols have just a 23% chance to win out.
No. 7 Miami has a very easy remaining schedule, with home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. They have an 82% chance to win out per FPI.
No. 6 Texas might need to lose twice to move behind BYU; FPI believes the Longhorns will lose at least once in road games at LSU and rival Texas A&M. Texas has a 34% chance to win out.

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There is only a 4% chance that all four of those teams will win out.

The key to staying in the projected College Football Playoff

While we don't know exactly what the committee is thinking, it's fair to assume that BYU is in the projected playoff field because of 1) the win over Notre Dame and 2) they looked like a playoff team against Utah. The Cougars won the line of scrimmage against Utah and lost by one score. The key to staying in the projected playoff field? Continue to look like a College Football Playoff team.

Style points haven't been much of a talking point this season since top 10 teams have lost every week. However, they could be the difference between staying in the projected playoff field or not. BYU doesn't have a chance to add to its resume with games against Baylor, Cincinnati, and Kansas. It's critical that BYU looks like a playoff team and asserts its dominance in these final three games.

Does BYU want to make the Big 12 title game?

Should BYU fans want to make the Big 12 title game or not?

By ranking BYU 10th, the committee has signaled that as of it today, it believes BYU is worthy of a playoff spot whether it is the Big 12 champion or not. BYU doesn't need to make the championship game to make the playoff, as that precedent has already been set. Miami earned a playoff bid even though it didn't make the ACC title game in, frankly, a terrible ACC last year.

However, if BYU doesn't make the Big 12 title game, it means that at least one of Texas Tech and Houston won out. That could be a problem for BYU, potentially. If Houston makes the Big 12 title game and loses to Utah, for example, that probably wouldn't impact BYU's playoff hopes.

If Texas Tech finishes 11-1, on the other hand, they would be a real threat to BYU. The Red Raiders could leapfrog BYU going into the championship game. If the Cougars are around the cut-off line, the committee may favor Texas Tech since the Red Raiders would have earned a spot in the championship game over BYU.

BYU's at-large hopes increase if Texas Tech and Houston lose, so making the title game means BYU will be in a better position to make the CFP. In other words, BYU fans may not be able to choose between a championship game or a playoff appearance - it might be all or nothing.

There are pros and cons to playing in the championship game. If BYU beat Utah in the championship game, the Cougars could host a first-round game. If BYU is near the cut line and loses to Utah, they could potentially be punished for another loss and miss the CFP entirely. That's why scoreboard watching the teams around BYU in the rankings will be so important this month.

The perception of the Big 12

The committee has signaled that it respects the Big 12. Four of the top 14 teams are from the Big 12. If there is more chaos in college football this month, there is a possibility that the Big 12 could be a three-bid league. There are six Big 12 teams in the top 25.

The committee has signaled that the ACC, on the other hand, is most likely a one-bid league unless Wake Forest upsets Miami in the ACC championship game. There are only two ACC teams in the top 25. The Big Ten could be in trouble as well. If the season ended today, only two Big Ten teams (UCLA and Indiana) would make the playoff.

If the season ended today...

If the season ended today, BYU would be the 10-seed in the College Football Playoff. The Cougars would travel to Miami to take on the Miami Hurricanes in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The winner of that game would take on - guess who - the Utah Utes in the quarterfinals. Utah moved up to no. 2 in the country after beating BYU. Since Utah is no. 2, the Utes would get to choose the location of their quarterfinal game after no. 1 Georgia picks their location. The Bulldogs would likely pick the Peach Bowl since it would be played in their home state.

That means Utah would get to choose between the Fiesta Bowl or the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl seems like the obvious choice since the travel to the Fiesta Bowl and the Rose Bowl is similar for fans traveling from Utah. In other words, there is a non-zero chance that Utah and BYU could be play each other in the Rose Bowl for a spot in the semifinals. Imagine that.

The latest CFP bracket projection of the season 👀 pic.twitter.com/OuOkwTElOP
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 11, 2026

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