The Floor and Ceiling for BYU in the Upcoming CFP Rankings

The BYU Cougars will drop in the College Football Playoff rankings when they are unveiled on Tuesday. How far they drop remains to be seen. In this article, we are looking at BYU's floor and ceiling in the upcoming CFP rankings.

The Floor

If there is one thing BYU fans have learned about the College Football Playoff committee, it's that the committee won't give BYU the benefit of the doubt. BYU was ranked 6th in the country in 2024 when they suffered their first loss to Kansas. The Cougars dropped all the way to 14th the following week. They were one spot below SMU, a team they beat on the road earlier that season.

Even though BYU played a competitive game on the road against an undefeated Utah team, the committee might use this as an opportunity to shut BYU out of the at-large race.

In the worst-case scenario, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, and even a two-loss Big Ten team like Iowa or USC could surpass the Cougars, putting BYU clear down at no. 14. If BYU came in at 14 in the rankings, it would need a lot of help to climb back into the playoff picture as an at-large team.

The floor: 14

The Ceiling

Besides losing to Utah and watching Texas Tech and Houston escape with victories (two games that really would have helped BYU), Saturday couldn't have gone much better for BYU. Notre Dame beat Miami which will send the Fighting Irish clear up to the top five. The Notre Dame are well on their way to finishing the season 11-1, giving BYU one of the two or three best wins in college football this season.

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There were multiple teams right around BYU that not only lost, they got blown out. No. 10 Ole Miss was embarrassed by Georgia at home. No. 12 Ohio State was embarassed by Oregon at home. No. 6 Kentucky lost 34-6 to Tennessee, and no. 14 LSU was blown out by Alabama.

Given the strength of BYU's win over Notre Dame win, combined with the poor showings of so many teams in the top 15 last week, there is a chance that BYU might only drop a spot or two in the CFP rankings. In that scenario, BYU would still be in the projected playoff field.

The ceiling: 10

Prediction

We believe BYU will come in right in between the floor and the ceiling on Tuesday. We know that Tennessee and Notre Dame will surpass BYU in the rankings. Then, we believe one of Kentucky, Texas Tech, or Wake Forest will be ahead of BYU, placing the Cougars at no. 12 in the CFP rankings.

No. 12 would put BYU in a great position to make the CFP as an at-large team. Three weeks is plenty of time for a team ranked ahead of BYU to lose, allowing BYU to move back into the 12-team field. As it currently stands, the cut-off for at-large teams would be no. 11.

Prediction: 12

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