What the Initial CFP Rankings Will Signal for BYU Football

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, BYU will be ranked when the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings are unveiled. The rankings are scheduled to be announced at 5:00 PM Mountain Time on Tuesday evening. Historically speaking, the committee has been critical of BYU and the Cougars have had to scratch and claw their way up on the rankings. Last year, BYU had a playoff-worthy resume, yet the Cougars were left out after winning 11 regular season games.

In this article, we break down what the initial rankings will signal for BYU football in 2026, and why there is a chance this might be the year BYU gets even a little benefit of the doubt.

How the committee views BYU compared to Notre Dame

We expect Notre Dame to be in the top 10 of the initial top 25. If the AP Poll is any indication, the Fighting Irish could even be in the top five. Having a top 10 win over a national power is something BYU has never had on its resume going into the initial rankings.

BYU fans have learned to expect the worst when these rankings come out. That is a valid reaction given the committee's track record with the Cougars. However, this could be the year that BYU gets the benefit of the doubt thanks to its win over Notre Dame. It's also important to note the parity in college football this season. The resumes of other teams competing for playoff spots are not as strong as they were this time last year. That could pay off for BYU.

Keep a very close eye on BYU and Notre Dame in these rankings. If the Fighting Irish are ahead of BYU, it's a signal that the committee is punishing BYU harshly for 1) a road loss to UCF in overtime and 2) BYU's game control, or lack thereof, against teams like Arizona State and TCU.

If BYU is ahead of Notre Dame, it would signal that the committee values on-field results over the eye test. Believe it or not, the committee has invented ways to ignore on-field results in the past. If BYU is ahead of Notre Dame, it will really increase BYU's chances for an at-large bid.

Would one more loss spoil BYU's at-large chances?

These rankings will reveal how much wiggle room BYU as an at-large team. An at-large team is one that makes the playoff without wining their conference. If BYU wins out, it will make it to the Big 12 title game at 11-1. Even if BYU loses the championship game, they would be in the field thanks to wins over two top ten teams: Notre Dame and Utah. If BYU wins the Big 12, it would earn an automatic bid to the playoff.

The question is whether BYU could absorb another regular season loss and make the 12-team playoff at 10-2. BYU is currently ranked 7th in the AP Poll. However, the gap between teams ranked 3rd to 8th is very small. BYU is actually closer to 3rd in the AP Poll than 9th because there is a big drop-off, at least in terms of teams with one loss or less, after number 8.

If the teams ranked 3-8 are close in the eyes of the committee, BYU's head-to-head win could catapult BYU ahead of Notre Dame and into the top 4 or 5. If BYU is ranked in the top five or six, that is evidence that the Cougars could potentially absorb one more regular loss and still make the playoff.

The Big 12's chances to get multiple teams in the 12-team field

Keep an eye on the entire Big 12 in these rankings. Arizona should be ranked despite losing to Texas Tech. It's important for BYU's resume that Arizona finds itself in the top 25.

Most importantly, keep an eye out for Utah and Texas Tech. Utah could have the same problem BYU has had the last two years: they lack a signature win over another team in the projected field. Utah is ranked 3rd in the AP Poll. We would be surprised if they are ranked that high in the CFP rankings. They could drop down to the 7-8 range due to strength of schedule. If Utah is in the 7-8 range, it's a signal that one loss could knock them out of the field, just like BYU's one loss knocked the Cougars out of the field last year.

We also don't expect Texas Tech to get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Tech has played not only one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12, but one of the easiest schedules in the Power Four and they were blown out by Cincinnati.

For the Big 12 to get two teams in, both BYU and Utah probably need to be in the top seven. Texas Tech will hope to be in the 12-14 range and hope for teams to lose ahead of them.

What a Win over Utah Would Mean

These rankings will outline what a win over Utah could do for BYU this weekend. Not only could BYU earn a top 10 win, it could also benefit from what will be a chaotic weekend of college football. This weekend is one of the best, if not the very best, weekends of college football this year. It's similar to the weekend when BYU took on Notre Dame.

Using the AP rankings, here are some of the headline matchups:

#7 BYU vs #3 Utah
#1 Miami vs #5 Notre Dame
#2 Georgia vs #12 Ole Miss
#9 Alabama vs #15 LSU
#8 Kentucky vs #16 Tennessee
#10 Texas vs #19 Missouri
#11 Ohio State vs Oregon

If the CFP rankings are even somewhat similar to the AP Poll, there is a chance that #1, #2, and #3 could lose, and in that scenario, BYU would have wins over #3 and #5. If BYU beats Utah, Notre Dame beats Miami, and Ole Miss beats Georgia, BYU could have a case to be ranked #1 this time next week.

Saturday morning is one of the biggest opportunities in program history.

Red flags to watch out for

There are a few red flags to watch out for when the rankings are unveiled. The first red flag would be if 6-2 Arizona is unranked. That would be a blow to BYU's resume and the Big 12 at large.

The next red flag would be if Wake Forest is near BYU in the rankings. The Demon Deacons have ripped through their schedule this year, but they should not be in the same category as BYU in the rankings. If they are, it's a sign of trouble for BYU. Their only loss came to #1 Miami. That's a respectable loss, but they lack a good win. They have not beaten a top 25 team and they needed overtime to escape Purdue. . Listen to their remaining schedule: Merrimack, SMU, Georgia Tech, and Duke. The ACC is very bad this year, so it's very likely that Wake Forest will finish the season with an 11-1 record. The more separation between BYU and Wake Forest, the better.

The biggest red flag would be if a two-loss SEC team is ranked ahead of BYU, even though BYU holds a win over Notre Dame. There is a huge group of two-loss SEC teams sitting between 9-19 in the AP Poll: Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, and Missouri. If one or two of the two-loss SEC teams is ranked ahead of BYU, it's a clear signal that BYU will need to go 11-1 in the regular season to make the playoff.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google