What the Advanced Analytics Say About BYU's Chances to Beat Cincinnati

BYU RB LJ Martin against TCU | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to maintain contorol of their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game. The Cougars, who came in at no. 11 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, are coming off a dominant win over TCU.

BYU is favored by 2.5 points heading into this game. Depending on the model, most advanced analytics models are more bullish on BYU's chances.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU a 62.4% chance to beat Cincinnati with a projected final score of 30.9-26.3 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 15th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 17 nationally and an offensive ranking of 19th nationally.

Cincinnati ranks ranks 28th nationally with an offensive ranking of 15th and a defensive rating of 78th.

On paper, the BYU offense against the Cincinnati defense is the biggest mismatch in this game.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Cincinnati.

SP+ gives BYU a 60% chance to win with an expected final score of 29-25. BYU ranks 17th in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 18th and 13th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense had been climbing the ranks before the Texas Tech game - the BYU offense dropped from 25th nationally to 39th after struggling against the Red Raiders. A dominant performance against TCU put the Cougars back in the top 30 at no. 26.

Cincinnati ranks 37th in SP+. The Bearcats are ranked 31st on offense, 53rd on defense, and 21st on special teams. It's worth noting that TCU's SP+ rankings last week were nearly identical to Cincinnati's this week before the Horned Frogs were blown out by BYU last week.

FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 67.5% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs gives BYU a 58.2% chance to beat Cincinnati with a projected final score of 28-24.

According to CFP Graphs, this game should feature a lot of offense. BYU's offense ranks 25th in quality drive rate and Cincinnati's defense ranks 120th in quality drive rate allowed.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in quality drive rate and BYU's defense ranks 92nd in quality drive rate allowed.

The matchup is going to be BYU's redzone defense against Cincinnati's redzone offense. BYU ranks 6th in points allowed per quality drive. The Bearcats rank 18th in points scored per quality drive.

On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to maintain contorol of their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game. The Cougars, who came in at no. 11 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, are coming off a dominant win over TCU.

BYU is favored by 2.5 points heading into this game. Depending on the model, most advanced analytics models are more bullish on BYU's chances.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU a 62.4% chance to beat Cincinnati with a projected final score of 30.9-26.3 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 15th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 17 nationally and an offensive ranking of 19th nationally.

Cincinnati ranks ranks 28th nationally with an offensive ranking of 15th and a defensive rating of 78th.

On paper, the BYU offense against the Cincinnati defense is the biggest mismatch in this game.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Cincinnati.

SP+ gives BYU a 60% chance to win with an expected final score of 29-25. BYU ranks 17th in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 18th and 13th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense had been climbing the ranks before the Texas Tech game - the BYU offense dropped from 25th nationally to 39th after struggling against the Red Raiders. A dominant performance against TCU put the Cougars back in the top 30 at no. 26.

Cincinnati ranks 37th in SP+. The Bearcats are ranked 31st on offense, 53rd on defense, and 21st on special teams. It's worth noting that TCU's SP+ rankings last week were nearly identical to Cincinnati's this week before the Horned Frogs were blown out by BYU last week.

FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 67.5% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs gives BYU a 58.2% chance to beat Cincinnati with a projected final score of 28-24.

According to CFP Graphs, this game should feature a lot of offense. BYU's offense ranks 25th in quality drive rate and Cincinnati's defense ranks 120th in quality drive rate allowed.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in quality drive rate and BYU's defense ranks 92nd in quality drive rate allowed.

The matchup is going to be BYU's redzone defense against Cincinnati's redzone offense. BYU ranks 6th in points allowed per quality drive. The Bearcats rank 18th in points scored per quality drive.