Why BYU Still Controls Its Big 12 Championship Destiny After UCF Setback

Mayhem is on deck for the top of the Big 12 standings

BYU wide receivers warm up for a road game against UCF | BYU Photo

November is right around the corner in what's shaping up to be a spectacular finish to the Big 12 title race. There are five teams in the Big 12 with one loss or less: Utah, BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. BYU is coming off a letdown against UCF, falling to 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play. Despite the loss to UCF, BYU controls its own destiny in the Big 12.

The Five Teams at the Top Are About to Take Each Other Out

All five of the top five teams in the standings will play at least one of the other teams in the top five. The majority of the top five (Utah, Arizona, Texas Tech) will face two of the other teams in the top five. BYU and Oklahoma State are the two teams that only face one other team in the top five over the next month. BYU will face Utah and Oklahoma State will host Texas Tech.

Despite the loss to UCF and the logjam at the top of the standings, BYU controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title race. Here are the top five teams in the standings.

Team	Conference Record
Utah	4-0
BYU	3-1
Arizona	3-1
Texas Tech	3-1
Oklahoma State	3-1

It's a given that either Texas Tech or Oklahoma State will lose since they play each other. The same goes for Arizona and Texas Tech. Regardless of the outcome of those games, at least one and potentially two of Arizona, Tech, and Oklahoma State will be handed their second loss.

If Texas Tech goes 2-0 or 1-1 in those two games, that would leave only three teams with one loss or less: Utah, BYU, and either Texas Tech or the team that beat Texas Tech. If only three teams are left with one loss or less and BYU wins out - which would include a win over Utah - BYU would automatically be in the Big 12 title game at 11-1 since a head-to-head win over Utah would cement a spot in the Big 12 title game.

The scenario where things could get dicey is if Texas Tech goes 0-2 against Arizona and Oklahoma State. That could leave four teams with one loss or less. That wouldn't last long, however, since Arizona and Utah play each other as well. In that scenario, there could only be three teams with one loss or less: BYU, Oklahoma State, and the winner of Arizona-Utah.

In that scenario, BYU would be in the Big 12 title game no matter what since it would hold a head-to-head win over both Arizona and Utah. Even if Oklahoma State wins the three-team tiebreaker and earns a spot in the Big 12 title game, the second place spot would come down to head-to-head and BYU would own head-to-head wins over both Utah and Arizona.

Here's the headline: BYU controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title race despite losing to UCF. If the Cougars win out, they will not only earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game, they will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff as well.

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