Why BYU Can Roll Past Stanford as a 20-Point Favorite

For the just the fifth time in the last 30 years, BYU is a double-digit favorite over a Power 4 opponent as they welcome Stanford to Lavell Edwards Stadium on Saturday night. BYU opened as a 17.5-point favorite which was quickly bet up to 20.5. Should BYU fans feel confident that BYU should cover such a lofty spread? Here's why they can.

Stanford will be starting Ben Gulbranson at Quarterback against BYU’s pass rush

Jack Kelly records a sack in BYU's win over SIU | BYU Photo

With all due respect to Ben Gulbranson, he was bad against Hawaii. The sixth-year senior posted a QBR of 14.0, ranking him 119th of all quarterbacks. Gulbranson was bad no matter the situation. When pressured, Gulbranson was 1 for 7 with a turnover-worthy play and 5.1 yards per attempt. When kept clean, the was 13 for 25 for 3.1 yards per attempt and 2 turnover-worthy plays. All of this came with an average depth of target of 5.7 yards against a Hawaii defense that allowed 6.1 yards per play last week to Arizona. BYU’s defense, meanwhile, just allowed 51 yards of total offense and generated pressure on 48% of snaps last week, while boasting the most efficient pass defense in America last season. Simply put, Jay Hill could have this man in a torture chamber on Saturday.

Bear Bachmeier should have time in a clean pocket

The BYU offensive line against Arizona | BYU Photo

BYU’s offensive line did not allow a single pressure last week against Portland State. While that is not indicative of the talent level BYU will face on Saturday, Stanford was only able to generate pressure on 10 of Hawaii’s 49 dropbacks. BYU’s experienced offensive line will pose a much stiffer test. Bachmeier is an exceptional decision maker who won the starting job, in part, because he took care of the football. Giving the true freshman time to make those decisions will only enhance his performance.

BYU should have the advantage between the two run games

BYU RB LJ Martin against Portland State | BYU Photo

Stanford built a reputation of “intellectual brutality” in the 2010’s on the backs of Heisman finalist running backs Toby Gerhart and Christian McCaffrey. In the 2020’s, Stanford has struggled to live up to that expectation. When Stanford running back Micah Ford crossed the goal line against Hawaii, it was the first rushing touchdown by a Stanford running back since September 2023. One should expect the Stanford run game to improve this season, but with Gulbranson’s inefficiency, BYU should be able to key on a run game that managed just 4.1 yards per carry against Hawaii. BYU’s run game, on the other hand, was about as dominant as you can be behind LJ Martin’s 16.3 yards per carry last week. Hawaii ran for 5.8 yards per carry on Stanford in week zero, and LJ Martin is a much different animal.

The vibes at Stanford are just bad

BYU vs Kansas State - Lavell Edwards Stadium | BYU Photo

This might be a silly reason that can’t be quantified, but we all get it. Time for a history lesson. Stanford fired head coach Troy Taylor back in March due to personal misconduct. That led to an outflow of transfers from the program, including Bear and Tiger Bachmeier, following spring ball. Newly hired GM Andrew Luck reached out to former NFL coach Frank Reich to lead the program on a one-year interim basis. Presumably to replace Bachmeier, Stanford brought in Gulbranson who eventually won the job with about two weeks in Stanford’s new system. As one-year rentals, Gulbranson and Reich’s task is to walk in to a sold-out, white-out night game in Provo and we are to expect that they will make it out alive? Maybe Andrew Luck can return the program to where they were when he led them, but unless he suits up at Quarterback, it wont happen on Saturday.

Prediction

Unfortunately for Stanford, I’m not sure what the path is for them to reach the endzone unless BYU’s offense makes a catastrophic mistake. Against Hawaii, Stanford mustered just 6 plays of 10 yards or more, meaning that they will need to be able to sustain multiple 10+ play drives against what is projected to be a top 25 defense. Stanford mustered just one of those scoring drives against Hawaii. I don’t see how they do better against BYU in Provo so long as their QB play is what it is.

On offense, BYU is just too good along the offensive line and has too many weapons for BYU to struggle against this Stanford defense. Perhaps they get off to a slow start due to Bachmeier’s inexperience, but in the second quarter BYU gets rolling at a pace Stanford can’t keep up with, leading to a QB change by halftime to no avail.

BYU 41 | Stanford 6