Why BYU's CFP Hopes Decreased Despite Blowout Win Over TCU

BYU RB LJ Martin against TCU | BYU Photo

On Saturday night, BYU dominated TCU 44-13 in a game that was never in doubt. Despite winning by such a convincing margin, BYU's chances to reach the College Football Playoff dropped from 45.4% after the loss to Texas Tech to 36.7% according to FPI.

So why did BYU's chances decrease despite a blowout win? Allow us to explain.

The decrease in BYU's CFP hopes had nothing to do with the Cougars' performance against the Horned Frogs, and everything to do with the teams surrounding them in the College Football Playoff rankings.

No. 10 Notre Dame dominated Pitt on the road. No. 12 Oklahoma upset no. 4 Alabama on the road. No. 7 Ole Miss escaped with a win over Florida, and no. 8 Oregon handled their business against Minnesota. There were also some teams behind BYU like no. 18 Michigan and no. 17 USC that won and put themselves in position to make big jumps up the rankings by the end of November.

In summary, BYU got very little help on Saturday. The only game that went in BYU's favor was Texas' blowout loss to Georgia. That loss knocked the Longhorns out of playoff consideration.

BYU's Chances to Make the CFP as an At-Large Team

So what are BYU's chances to earn an at-large bid in the CFP? Let's break it down.

For the purposes of this article, let's assume that BYU finishes 11-1. That's far from a sure thing, of course, but the only way BYU will have a chance at an at-large berth would be with a 11-1 record.

BYU needs at least one of these four teams to lose one more game: no. 4 Alabama, no. 8 Oregon, no. 9 Notre Dame, and no. 11 Oklahoma. While it wouldn't hurt BYU if other teams ranked ahead of them lost, none of the other teams would fall below BYU in the rankings with another loss. Therefore, BYU really needs at least one more loss from one of those four teams. Below are the odds that those four teams win the rest of their regular season games:

• Notre Dame - 92.3%
• Alabama - 73.5%
• Oregon - 55.2%
• Oklahoma - 44.9%

While the data suggests that those four teams will be favored in all of their remaining games, the chances that none of them lose even one game is relatively slim. For BYU to be completely blocked out of the chance to move up, those teams would have to win an eight-game parlay. The data suggests it's likely that those teams will lose at least one more game.

Using FPI win probabilities, there is only a 16.8% chance that all four teams win out. In other words, there is an 83.2% chance that BYU will have a chance to slide up one more spot in the rankings. That one spot is absolutely critical for the Cougars who are just one spot outside the cut line. Given the trajectory of the ACC and the Group of Six, the cutoff to make the CFP as an at-large team will be the top 10. BYU will likely be ranked no. 11 in Tuesday's CFP rankings.

For a team in the Big 12 like BYU, it's also going to important to monitor the Big Ten and SEC teams ranked behind them. No. 14 Vanderbilt, no. 18 Michigan, and no. 17 USC are still lingering around. It would help BYU if those teams lost one more game down the stretch, although it might not be necessary to make the cut.

Michigan is probably the greatest threat to BYU, although they still have to take on no. 1 Ohio State to end the season. USC has a chance at a top 10 win against Oregon this week.