Cal, Stanford in Unexpected Positions Heading into Big Game

I would love to know what is going through the mind of Cal general manager Ron Rivera today?

Cal’s 3-7 record and current four-game losing streak could not have been what he had in mind when he hired Tosh Lupoi. And the juxtaposition of Cal’s 2026 season relative to Stanford’s season heading into Saturday’ Big Game might be affecting his thoughts.

He was wearing a headset during Saturday’s 36-7 loss to Virginia, and you don’t do that unless you want to hear everything coaches are saying so you can make judgments.

Remember, this is the man who fired Justin Wilcox last year when the Bears had a winning record (6-5) but suffered a humbling, 31-10 loss to the Cardinal the day before the dismissal.

It seems there is virtually no chance Lupoi will be fired after the first year of his five-year contract, but Rivera will be paying close attention to how Cal looks against Stanford, which at 5-5 has already won more games than it has in any season since 2018.

In preseason, the positions Cal and Stanford hold heading into Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. Big Game in Berkeley would have seemed almost impossible.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford’s Tavita Pritchard would be celebrated for his work as a first-year head coach while Cal’s Tosh Lupoi would be struggling for answers.

When Lupoi was named Cal’s head coach last December, it was universally hailed as the perfect hire, raising expectations to the highest level in years.

When Pritchard was hired by Stanford last November, the nation responded with a collective “Huh?”

Now Pritchard is seen as the reason Stanford, picked to finish last in the ACC, is tied for seventh place in the ACC. It’s the reason Pritchard was shown having a prolonged hug with GM Andrew Luck after Saturday’s 40-22 upset of Virginia Tech.

Lupoi’s team is tied for last place, and a recent story in The Athletic suggested there is a rift between him and Rivera.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford quarterback Davis Warren would be having a better year than Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

In The Athletic’s July FBS quarterback rankings for 2026, Sagapolutele was ranked 14th and Warren was 119th.

But now: Warren has thrown 14 TD passes, Sagapolutele has thrown 11. Warren has had three passes intercepted, Sagapolutele has had eight. Warren averages 240.6 passing yards per game, Sagapolutele averages 210.2 yards. Warren has a passer rating of 131.1, Sagapolutele’s passer rating is 126.9. Warren has a record of 5-5 as a starter, Sagapolutele is 2-6 as a starter.

Obviously, the fact that Warren has a better offensive line and a better running game play a role in those numbers, but still . . . .

In August who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford would be averaging more points than Cal.

With the return of Sagapolutele, the addition running back Adam Mohammed and wide receivers Chase Hendricks and Ian Strong and the return of three starting offensive linemen from last season, Cal was expected to have an explosive offense. Stanford was not.

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Stanford is averaging 22.3 points per game, which is hardly a reason to gloat, but still better than Cal’s 20.4 points. And two of Cal’s 25 touchdowns were scored by the Bears’ defense.

In ACC games, Stanford is averaging 20.7 points; Cal is averaging 14.3 points – 12.3 if you subtract the points scored by the defense.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Cal (3-7) would already been eliminated from a chance to be bowl-eligible for the fourth year in a row, while Stanford (5-5) needs to win one of its two remaining games to get to a bowl game for the first time in eight years.

A bowl berth seemed like the baseline achievement expected for the Bears this season, while a bowl game seemed like a pipe dream for a Cardinal squad that was ranked 131st of 138 FBS teams by Fox Sports’ preseason rankings – 92 slots behind 39th-ranked Cal.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford would be the team making the late-season surge while Cal seems to be getting worse.

Cal is on a four-game losing streak and has lost those four games by a combined margin of 123 points, the largest four-game deficit in the history of Cal football. Cal has been outscored 83-0 in the second half of its last three games.

Stanford has won three of its past four games, and seems to be getting better.

Cal has rushed for a total of 230 yards as a team over the past four games. Stanford’s Micah Ford by himself has rushed for 550 yards over the Cardinal’s past four games. By the way, Ford rushed for 150 yards in Stanford's victory over Cal last year.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford would be a 2.5-point favorite over Cal in Saturday’s Big Game, according to FanDuel.

Halfway through the season, Cal was 3-3 and 2-1 in the conference, and it appeared the Bears could at least count on a victory over Stanford, which was 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the conference at the time.

Things have changed.

In August, who would have thought . . . .

. . . . that Stanford would wind up ahead of Cal in the ACC standings.

A Cal loss on Saturday would guarantee that the Bears, 2-5 in the ACC and picked to finish 12th in the ACC preseason poll, would end up behind Stanford, 3-4 in the ACC and picked to finish 17th in the 17-team ACC.

However, Cal could do no worse than wind up tied with Stanford if the Bears win their final two games against Stanford and Pitt, and that might allow Cal to end up ahead of the Cardinal, which faces Cal and SMU in its last two games.

Ron Rivera is probably mulling over all those issues.

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