Does Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Have a Real Shot at the 2026 Heisman?

In the wake of Fernando Mendoza winning the Heisman Trophy on Saturday, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach unveiled his “way-too-early” list of 15 potential contenders in 2026.

Among them, Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

Here’s what Schlabach wrote about the Golden Bears’ freshman left-hander:

2025 stats: 63.6% completion pct, 3,117 passing yards, 20 total touchdowns

There's a reason new Bears coach Tosh Lupoi took a late-night flight to Hawai'i to make sure Sagapolutele was staying at Cal. He was only the second true freshman in FBS history to pass for 200 yards or more in each of his first 11 starts. In the Bears' late-season upsets of then-No. 21 SMU and No. 15 Louisville, Sagapolutele passed for a combined 653 yards with six touchdowns and no picks.

The competition, obviously, is severe . . . and wide open.

The 2026 season doesn’t begin for 8 1/2 months and a lot can change between now and then, and certainly once teams begin playing.

For now, here are the 15 players Schlabach earmarked as possible Heisman hopefuls (listed alphabetically by position):

Quarterbacks

CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Jayden Maiaiva, USC

Arch Manning, Texas

Drew Mestemaker, North Texas

Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Cal

Julian Sayin, Ohio State

Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Demond Williams, Washington

Running backs

Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

Bo Jackson, Ohio State

Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss

Wide receivers

Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

Malachi Toney, Miami

Among others to watch, seven more are quarterbacks, including including freshmen Bear Bachmeier of BYU (whom Cal plays next season) and Bryce Underwood or Michigan.

We thought we’d weigh in on the factors that could impact what are obviously long-shot chances for Sagapolotele:

Working in his favor

He’s a quarterback: The Heisman was once the domain of running backs — they won the award every season from 1972 through ’84. No running back has won it since Derrick Henry in 2015.

Travis Hunter, a combo wide receiver/cornerback from Colorado won it in 2024, but he was rare outlier. Before Hunter, quarterbacks captured the trophy 12 of 14 years.

He has head start on 2026: Running back Jeremiyah Love was a 1,000-yard rusher in 2024 and he plays for Notre Dame so he had a jump on the field entering this season. The other three finalists were on no one’s preseason Heisman lists.

Sagapolutele won’t be a favorite, but he’s not a complete unknown, either, after a prolific freshman campaign. A big performance in the Hawaii Bowl wouldn’t hurt his chances.

Sophomore status not a handicap: For decades the Heisman belonged to seniors. But college football has changed and as recently 2021 and ’22, sophomores Bryce Young of Alabama and Caleb Williams of USC won the award. Starting with Florida’s Tim Tebow in 2007, sophomores claimed the Heisman three years in a row.

Working against him

Winning matters: While Mendoza was a worthy Heisman recipient, a big part of the reason is that the Hoosiers are 13-0 and Big Ten champions. Colorado’s 9-3 record didn’t prevent Hunter from winning the year before, but he was a special, virtually unique, selection as a dynamic two-way talent.

The seven Heisman winners prior to Hunter all played for teams that won at least 10 games, so we’re setting that as the bar for Sagapolutele to have any realistic chance in 2026. Cal hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2006 and boasts just three such seasons since the days of Pappy Waldorf in the late 1940s.

Roster rebuild under new coach: The Bears will look different under Tosh Lupoi next season; that’s the case everywhere these days. The Bears’ new coach is known first and forecast as an elite recruiter, but can he assemble enough high-level talent in his first season to assemble a team that competes in the upper echelon?

As a defensive guy, Lupoi is likely to attract impact players on that side of the ball. But he also needs a truckload of wide receivers, running backs and especially offensive linemen to put around Sagapolotele.

The unknown: Schlabach’s list of potential Heisman contenders is an educated guess, but it’s just that — a guess. Last August, ESPN listed Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier as the favorites for the award. A month into the season, all three were essentially eliminated from the field.

There is no shortage of legitimate candidates for the 2026 Heisman Trophy but some of them will fall away and, without question, a name or two that no has has considered will emerge.

The odds of Sagapolutele winning are long. Just as they are for everyone else.

Follow Jeff Faraudo on Twitter, Facebook and Bluesky

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