Jon Wilner Answers 5 Questions Leading into The Big Game

With the 128th Big Game set for Saturday at Stanford Stadium, we went to Jon Wilner, college football writer for the Mercury News/East Bay Times and author of the well-connected Wilner Hotline.

Rather than having Wilner focus strictly on the Cardinal, we quizzed him on topics related to both teams and Saturday's game itself. Here goes . . .

1. How do you think the Frank Reich interim coach arrangement has worked out for Stanford? No one probably expected a great season in any case, but how has it allowed GM Andrew Luck time to put things in order?

“I think it’s worked out as well as you could have hoped. The very nature of having an interim coach suggests it’s not going to be a very good season. Reich is well-aligned with Luck and what Stanford wants to do. They’ve been competitive and I think they’re going to be real competitive against Cal.

“Meanwhile, Luck is very hands on. He’s at practices, on the sideline at games. He’s dealing with everything from recruiting to game planning, working with players, and of course in the background is trying to raise money and find a coach.”

2. Are there a couple potential candidates you think are being considered or will emerge for the Stanford coaching job? Is there someone you think they should target?

“I can say certain somebody to keep an eye on is Tavita Pritchard, who was the former Stanford quarterback and author of the huge upset of USC in 2007. He was a teammate of Luck’s at Stanford. He then worked on the staff, he was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach under David Shaw. He’s now with the (NFL’s Washington) Commanders as their quarterbacks coach.

“I think it Luck wants to go with someone he’s comfortable with, someone who understands what it takes to succeed at Stanford as a student and a football player, that Pritchard is going to be high on their list.

“There certainly is the risk-reduction piece of it, right? Stanford, to me, is not in a position to go any further backward than it has been in recent years on the football front. And if you’re hiring somebody who’s never been a head coach, there’s a bigger risk that it’s not going to work. Pritchard has never been a head coach.”

3. Cal has made a lot of changes in its effort to boost the profile of its program and they are bowl eligible with two games left. How do you think their season has gone and what kind of coaching grade would you give Justin Wilcox so far?

“I think you’ve probably got to give him a B-minus. I actually think 6-4 given their schedule is the baseline for what it should be. I understand that Cal has some personnel issues . . . running the ball’s hard. Their receivers are not great, they drop a lot of passes, they don’t have great separation.

“The defense is pretty good. I kind of feel like 6-4, given what they have in the quarterback situation, that’s the minimum. A lot to play out here. I could easily see them losing both games coming up and finishing 6-6. Or I could see them winning both games.

“Basically, give them an incomplete. But I haven’t been blown away at all. They have got a very special talent at quarterback, there’s no doubt about that. They have got to show him it’s worth sticking around. You got to get that guy some receivers, you got to get him a running game, some better offensive linemen.

“To me that’s going to be the challenge, whether it’s Wilcox or someone else. Because I don’t think it’s a guarantee that Wilcox is coming back at this point. Whatever they’ve got to do to keep JKS, they’ve got to do that.”

4. What will determine whether Ron Rivera retains Wilcox or makes a change? And how much does freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, whom the Bears desperately want and need to keep, factor into the coaching decision?

“They don’t want to make a coaching change and lose him. It’s complicated, I think. In the past, Cal fans have always, `We’re not good enough under Wilcox. We need to be winning more, need to win seven or eight.’

“Quick history lesson: 2019 was a really good season for them, right? They won the bowl game and won eight games. COIVD hit them for two years. And I think people forget that. They were the only program in the country that really got derailed by COVID in 2021. And then it takes them another year to emerge. But the last two seasons, 6-6, going to a bowl game, that was fine given the resources they were putting in.

“But the resources are next-level now. And the commitment from Chancellor Rich Lyons and from Ron Rivera is next-level. I think they’re holding Wilcox to a higher bar and they should be.

“Rivera has been very public, talking about how 8 or 9 wins is a successful season and there’s a good chance they won’t get there. Does that mean if they beat Stanford and finish 7-5, say, do they make a change? Not necessarily. You certainly have to evaluate Sagapolutele’s situation.

“I think holding Wilcox to a higher bar, given the resources, is very fair.”

5. Cal has won four straight Big Games. Who will win Saturday and what do you expect from the game?

“First of all, I expect it to be a little muddy. The rain this week, Stanford’s grass in the past has not held up great this time of year. I see a little bit of a slog. I would not mind a 10-7, 13-10 game. I kind of like those 1950s-style Big Games.

“I think Cal has got the better team. But I’m not sure Cal’s going to win. In fact, this strikes me as a year where Cal should win and Cal won’t win. There’s been a few games already that Cal should have won and didn’t win. Stanford’s been feisty at home.

“I’m thinking it’s going to be a Stanford win and that could certainly make things much more interesting with Justin Wilcox. I don’t know, watching these teams play for however many years I’ve been watching them play, I’ve just got a funny feeling that this is one of those Cal should win but Cal’s not going to win.

“Certainly that (four-game Cal) winning streak has got to end sometime. Wilcox has done very well . . . that’s probably the best thing he’s done as Cal’s coach, and that’s beat Stanford for four years in a row. I’m going to go Stanford 16, Cal 13. Lots of field goals.”

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