Justin Wilcox Doesn't Think of Cal's Upset of Louisville as a Fluke

Head coach Justin Wilcox does not want you or his team to think of Cal’s upset of 15th-ranked Louisville as a fluke.

He didn’t say that in so many words on Monday, but that seemed to be the message, when he said, “We don’t need to be looking at it as some monumental upset” and “We don’t need to look at it like it was some shoot-the-moon type victory.”

When you take a look at the game and how it played out, there was nothing fluky about it. Cal simply outplayed the Cardinals.

Louisville, 7-1 at the time, was an 18.5-point favorite in that game in Louisville, and typically an underdog of that magnitude needs to get a series of breaks during the game to pull off such a surprising victory. The favorite needs to commit a bunch of uncharacteristic turnovers or blow a number of scoring opportunities or allow some big plays on blown coverages or get penalized on key plays or allow big plays by the underdogs on special teams or get off to an unusually slow start that gives the underdog hope, or any number of things that don’t usually occur.

None of that happened in Cal’s win.

Cal rolled up significantly more offensive yardage than Louisville (427 yards to Louisville's 351). Cal also recorded more first down (21 to 15), ran more offensive plays, and was better on third down, converting 8-of-18 third downs into first downs compared with Louisville’s 6-for-17.

Penalties? Cal was actually penalized more than Louisville, with the Bears getting hit eight times for 60 penalty yards while Louisville had four penalties for 45 yards.

Turnovers? The only turnover of the game could not be considered a lucky break, because Cal cornerback Hezekiah Masses made an outstanding play to pick off a Miller Moss pass. Masses has done this kind of thing before. His five interceptions this season ties him for the most in the country, so luck was not part of the equation.

Special teams? There were no blocked punts or game-changing returns. Cal’s Chase Meyer missed a 40-yard field goal attempt after the Bears’ long drive to open the game, and that miss could have turned momentum in Louisville’s favor, especially after the Cardinals scored a touchdown on their ensuing possession. But the Bears came right back.

Cal true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele clearly outplayed fifth-year Louisville senior quarterback Moss, and Cal receiver Jacob De Jesus beat Louisville coverage time after time.

And Cal did it without three key defensive players – inside linebacker Cade Uluave, defensive tackle TJ Bollers and safety Aden Manutai – who missed the game with injuries. (Not to mention Cal being without outside linebacker Ryan McCulloch and safety Isaac Crosby who were lost for the season several weeks ago.)

The Cardinals were without all-conference running back Isaac Brown, but his replacement, Keyjuan Brown, rushed for 136 yards and averaged 9.7 yards per carry. Isaac Brown could not have done much better than that.

There was nothing about this Cal win that smelled like a fluke. Cal was simply the better team that day. However, the unexpected victory did enhance the perception of Sagapolutele, Wilcox and the Cal football program.

“We don’t really control the perception,” Wilcox said. “What we control is going to get the one victory, which in the won-loss column counts the same.

“Does it breed confidence in the team? Sure it does. Can it build momentum? Sure it can. We want to capitalize on all the good that comes out of winning a game like that.

“But also that the team understand, that’s what we’re capable of. We don’t need to be looking at that as some monumental upset. I mean, Louisville’s a really good team, but when we play really hard, and we minimize mistakes, regardless of how many guys are out of the lineup, if you go out there and play really hard, play good football, you’ll give yourself a chance to win . . . We had those chances in the two previous games, but we didn’t capitalize on those …

“So again the momentum and the belief and the confidence that can breed, that’s a really good thing. However, we also don’t need to look at it like it was some shoot-the-moon type victory.

“With all due respect to Louisville, they’re a good team, but if we play really hard and we minimize mistakes and we give ourselves a chance to win . . . because there’s a lot of plays in there that we honestly could play a lot better. So all those things can be true.”

Cal is now 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, and the proof of what Cal is capable of will come in the final two regular-season games – November 22 at Stanford and November 29 at home against SMU. Good Cal performances in those games will substantiate the Bears’ showing against Louisville. If the Bears play poorly in those games it could erase all the good vibes and positive perception generated by the impressive – and deserved – victory over Louisville.

NOTES: There's a good chance that Uluave, Bollers and tight end Mason Mini will be ready for Cal's game against Stanford, although all three are considered day-to-day. Cal has a bye this week as does Stanford before they meet in the 128th Big Game on Saturday, November 22 with a 4:30 p.m. starting time.

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