Bearcats Bubble Watch: Cincinnati Hoops Back In NCAA Tournament Position After BYU Blowout

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are firmly back on the NCAA Tournament bubble for the first time in over a month after stacking six wins in their past seven games, including four wins by 15-plus points.

It has them profiling like a top-five team in the country right now, and they should only need three more wins to cement a spot in the dance.

"We talked about it after the Kansas game, because I knew that would create some of the NCAA Tournament talk," UC head coach Wes Miller said after beating BYU. "We agreed as a team that we weren't going to get caught up in the things that are put out there for clicks and for interest. They talk about the NCAA Tournament bubble in January now. I mean, when I played, they didn't start talking about it until about right now. And they do that because it generates interest.

"And I love that people are interested in college basketball, but I'm not going to participate in that. The only thing that we're doing is trying to win the next day. And I do believe in my heart, when it's all said and done, we'll play in the NCAA tournament, but we're not putting pressure on ourselves that we have to win this game or not, like we're just trying to win the next day. Have joy playing the game. Have joy competing. And we did talk about that a week and a half ago, and I think these guys have done a good job not getting caught up in all that crap."

Mar 3, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas, left, hugs head coach Wes Miller after leaving the game against the BYU Cougars in the second half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Cincinnati has a pretty solid tournament case right now, but the Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan in December is their biggest roadblock and reason why they need to get to 20 wins (beat TCU and two conference tournament wins) to make their best argument to get in.

UC is up to 49th in the NET Rankings (a season-high), but will rise higher after the BYU game is logged and hold 3-10 marks in Q1 and 4-2 against Q2.

ESPN's Neil Paine gives the team a 35% chance to make the tournament as of this writing. While JThom Analytics is much more bearish at 3%, things seem much closer to Paine's projection than the latter. UC was -500 on DraftKings Sportsbook to miss the tournament entering the week, but those odds are no longer available as of this writing.

All in all, Cincinnati is much closer to a 50% chance to get in that 0%, and that will only keep rising in what's basically an at-large playoff game this Saturday against TCU. Whichever team wins that game will very likely get the final Big 12 at-large bid into the dance.

The Bearcats' next massive game comes on the road Saturday against that fellow bubble team at 2 p.m. ET on TNT.

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