Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: 2026 Liberty Bowl

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats are rekindling an old AAC rivalry this Friday in the 2026 Liberty Bowl, played in Memphis, Tennessee, against the Navy Midshipmen.

The Bearcats opened as betting favorites in the game, but a litany of bowl opt-outs has pushed them all the way to 7.5-point underdogs against a Navy team that takes bowl games very seriously with players who cannot opt out.

The Midshipmen have won six of their past seven bowl games, including last year's Armed Forces Bowl. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has not won a bowl game this decade.

“They’re a good football team,” UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. “They had a great season this year, winning 10 games. They run a prolific offense, one of the best in the country. Their quarterback makes it go; he’s a 1,000-yard rusher who can throw the football as well. They’re a disciplined team that plays hard."

Satterfield's team is trying to overcome the loss of names like Brendan Sorsby, Dontay Corleone, Tawee Walker, Evan Pryor, and more in this game.

It kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday and airs on ESPN.

Offensive Key To The Game: Lean On Offensive Line

The Bearcats don't have a single starting offensive lineman missing this game, and leaning on that strength is the clearest path to an upset win. Navy does not have a lot of maulers to match up against one of the best protection groups in the country.

The Midshipmen have not done a great job at the point of attack all year, ranking 86th in dropback EPA allowed and 90th in rushing yards after contact. Although they are 29th in yards before contact, UC will have to win quickly to set new starting rushers Zion Johnson and Manny Covey up for ankle-breaking plays at the second level.

Quarterbacks Brady Lichtenberg and Samaj Jones are gonna have chances to make plays here. It's a nice defensive profile to play your first significant action of the year against. Navy's 49th-best sack EPA defense shouldn't scare Cincinnati's second-best unit in that metric on the other side. Both quarterbacks should get plenty of time to operate after weeks to get their dropback timing right in front of the group.

Add in the lack of transfers at wide receiver, and UC's offense is sneakily set up to end its four-game streak scoring less than 25 points. That is, if Lichtenberg and Jones can take advantage of a defense allowing a 9.8-yard average depth of target (132nd nationally), 8.2 yards per pass attempt overall (119th), and a 148.87 passer rating (119th).

Deep passes to Jeff Caldwell and Caleb Goodie will likely be accessible, as will Cyrus Allen's operation at the first and second level. The real question is, can the new Bearcats passers be poised and accurate enough to take advantage? We are about to find out.

Defensive Key To The Game: Contain Blake Horvath

It's a lot easier said than done.

Navy's veteran signal caller wasn't crazy efficient this year overall (61st in ESPN's QBR), but he does it all for the Midshipmen as a 1,100-yard rusher and 1,400-yard passer. He's averaging 6.1 yards per carry on 421 career totes and represents a brutal matchup for a Bearcats team that's struggled mightily against rushing quarterbacks.

UC ranks 105th and 117th in scramble rate and scramble EPA allowed this season. Meanwhile, Navy is 12th and first in the country in those metrics. Without Corleone, it's hard to see Cincinnati keeping the triple option rushing attack under 280 yards rushing (Navy averages 289 per game, top in the nation).

Cincinnati is allowing 4.29 yards per carry this season (75th).

“It’s very difficult,” Satterfield said when asked about defending Navy. “I spent some time at previous jobs where we played some option teams in our conference; you have to spend a lot of time on it. It’s assignment football. You have to be in your gaps; you have to have great eye control. You have to tackle well.”

Through the air, this matchup gets even worse.

Cincinnati may have to pick between selling out on the run and giving up big throws, or playing soft coverage like they have all season to limit an 11.73-yard average depth of target from Horvath (fourth nationally) and 9.5 yards per pass overall (third nationally).

UC is 65th nationally, allowing 38 total 20-plus yard pass plays this season. If Navy has four to six of those on Friday, it's going to be very difficult to overcome when paired with the running. All eyes are on Matthew McDoom to end a rough 2025 season well against wide receiver Eli Heidenreich on the outside (46 catches for 877 yards and five scores).

The Navy scorcher ranks 11th nationally in yards per catch (19.1) and is the top playmaker to worry about outside of Horvath. If Cincinnati can keep him to just one big play and stay sound with their triple option keys against Horvath, then a winning path opens up.

Catch all of the action on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

Prediction: 35-28 Navy

Season Prediction Record: 9-3

All advanced stats courtesy CFBGraphs.com.

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