Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Bowling Green State Falcons

CINCINNATI — The 2025 home opener is almost here for Cincinnati Bearcats Football! UC takes on the Bowling Green State Falcons on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and Cincinnati is a big favorite in the game.

Scott Satterfield's team is currently a 21.5-point betting favorite as of this writing, with a point total sitting at 46.5 points. Cincinnati enters the contest with an 87.5% chance to win according to ESPN's Football Power Index. The Bearcats are ironically 0-4 all-time against BGSU, but the last game was played in 1994, long before Cincinnati rose to prominence in the sport.

BGSU is coming off a lackluster 26-7 win over FCS Lafayette this past weekend and failed to cover as 21.5-point favorites.

"Watching their game from last week, their guys played hard, they’re coached well," Satterfield said about the Falcons."Coach [Eddie] George and his staff did a really good job. We went back and watched Tennessee State as well. He did some really good things there. Also, these guys will play hard, there’s no question about it. Very physical. Going back to BG last year, they lost to Penn State by a touchdown, Texas A&M by six. They’re not going to be intimidated by coming in here and playing. So, we’ve continued to elevate our play, play with the same intensity, execute better, and at a high level. We’re going to go out and play a great game this week.”

Let's dive into the path to an easy win on Saturday.

Defensive Key To The Game: Low Blitzing, Coverage In Numbers

Quarterback Drew Pyne is at his current college for a reason this season. The veteran passer isn't scaring anyone with his arms or legs, especially after going 12-of-18 for 109 yards passing and no scores last week (13.4 ESPN QBR, 120th nationally). Now, the offense could've been vanilla on purpose to on-ramp the season against a lowly opponent, but Pyne's been rough much of his career. Since posting a 155.3 passer rating in 2022, He's been at 117.5 or below each season since.

He is a poor processor that's bound to put the ball in harm's way throughout the contest (1 big-time throw against four turnover-worthy plays last season), especially if Cincinnati's three-man front can create pressure without blitzing many extra bodies.

Pyne is horrific under pressure, completing 32% of his passes on 31 pressured dropbacks last season for 3.6 yards per attempt, one TD, and one INT at Missouri. Their passing offense is dead when/if Pyne gets under duress. In Week 1, the BGSU offensive line did not portray a sound setting for Pyne to operate in.

One of the worst projected pass-blocking units in the country looked like it against the Leopards, allowing pressure on 41% of dropbacks. If Cincinnati can get even around 30%, I don't see how BGSU gets over its 12.5-point betting team total. Rushing-wise, no one should scare Cincinnati after five running backs combined for 39 carries and 162 rushing yards against Lafayette.

“It motivates us to win this week; we’re not just looking past them. They're a very talented team, a Hall of Fame coach, and they run the ball. We respect our opponent,” Dontay Corleone said about the game.

Cincinnati's defense should completely stifle a mostly-new BGSU offense in the first year under George. The unit ranked 127th in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric after Week 1...and they did that against a team that went 6-6 in the FCS last season.

Offensive Key To The Game: Settle Down, Sorsby

These next two weeks are about getting Brendan Sorsby and his receivers on the same page before Big 12 play. Strong production should be possible against a largely new secondary that played merely average against Lafayette in Week 1 (70 Pro Football Focus coverage grade).

I'm expecting a much better performance throwing the ball from the veteran after he sailed far too many passes and just did not look like himself when it came to read progression last Thursday.

“As an offense in general, you would like to be able to throw the ball down the field and have a bunch of explosive plays," Sorsby said about the outing. "They did a good job of making us take everything underneath. I have to do a better job of hitting some stuff. We just have to play pitch-and-catch and find a way to move the ball down the field, and then get explosives that way. Get them to come down and then take the deep shots whenever they come. But props for those guys in the secondary and their defense as well.”

Sorsby went 0-3 on passes of 15-plus yards in the opener, and the offense had some execution issues in the screen game as well. All things that are reasonable to happen in Game 1, but must be cleaned up this week if Cincinnati is going to cover the 21.5-point spread. Another sloppy passing performance should still lead to a win, but it's time to start building momentum toward Big 12 play.

Lafayette only ran for 2.1 yards per carry against BGSU, but I expect another 200-plus yard rushing outing from Cincinnati in this game. Sorsby should be able to keep rolling on the ground after nearly 100 yards and two scores last week as a much better rushing option than Lafayette QB Dean DeNobile.

Add in the fact that BGSU's top corner, Jalen McClendon, is dealing with an injury that popped up in the game, and you get an even more vulnerable secondary for Cincinnati to pounce on. I'm looking for Cincinnati to get the run game rolling, then really open the pain up with play action, where things were a mess in Week 1 (7-of-12 for 29 yards on play action).

UC should have little issue with in-state BGSU, given all the new faces for George's team and a non-factor at QB leading them into town.

Prediction: 34-10 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 1-0

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