Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Kansas Jayhawks

CINCINNATI — The third run through Big 12 play has arrived for the Cincinnati Bearcats football. Scott Satterfield's team hits the road this weekend for a Saturday early battle against the Kansas Jayhawks.

UC enters this game as consensus 4.5-point underdogs and holds a 30.8% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. The Jayhawks are 27th in ESPN's FPI entering the game, while Cincinnati is 46th nationally.

The Bearcats may have to topple a high-powered Kansas offense without Dontay Corleone, who's been questionable all week with an ankle injury. It's a completely wide-open league for Cincinnati to make some noise in.

“I don't know if it makes me scared or antsy knowing that can happen," UC quarterback Brendan Sorsby noted about the murky Big 12 hierarchy. "I think it just proves what pretty much everybody in the league has been saying from media days and before, that just about anything can happen any given week. You have to come out and be ready to execute. Otherwise, you will either get beaten pretty badly or lose a close one because you didn't execute the right things correctly. You have to be ready to go from stop one.”

Cincinnati is trying to get to 2-2 all-time against Kansas after the Jayhawks whooped Satterfield's first team 49-16 in 2023.

Offensive Key To The Game: Slinging Sorsby

Here we go again.

Cincinnati has the talent and pedigree in an underdog spot to not only cover the spread, but also win the game, but if Sorsby passes the ball like he did the first go around this season, the latter is not happening. UC has had a couple of missed plays that have kept them from being undefeated entering this game, and most of those fell on Sorsby in Week 1.

That game was arguably the worst passing outing of his career, but he's responded exactly how you'd expect with a monstrous 15 yards per pass attempt on 82.1% completion in the last two games (eight TDs, no picks).

Now, those numbers will obviously cool off this week, but Sorsby has to stay somewhat consistent through the air to take advantage of a lacking secondary compared to the run defense.

“Yeah, it’s huge for us," Sorsby said about the air success the past two games. "Nebraska, we didn't have a great game through the air, but the two weeks after that, we had some success throwing the ball. We have to continue to carry that going into conference play and use that confidence and continue to build on it. Like you said, 15-for-15 is ideal, but it's not going to happen every week. It's our job to figure out ways to get completion, to get guys the ball. We just have to go out there and execute one play at a time.”

The Jayhawks have already played four games and rank first nationally in CFB Graphs EPA/rush allowed, but just 69th nationally in EPA/dropback allowed. They can be had in the air, especially with two key safety pieces dealing with murky statuses in Mason Ellis and Devin Dye. Attacking them early and often with a passing attack that's as gelled as ever could get KU on its heels.

Lance Leipold's defense has suffered 32 passing plays of 10-plus yards this year (79th nationally) and has allowed a TD on 57.14% of opposing red zone trips (64th). Hit those quick passes, stay accurate like you've been the past two games, control the clock better, which will then stifle the top-15 KU pass rush, and cap it with continued execution in the red zone (UC has a 90.9% RZ TD rate).

That's the path to UC's offense controlling this game and getting its third road Big 12 win under Satterfield.

Defensive Key To The Game: Control Jalon Daniels

Jalon Daniels was on the preseason shortlist of candidates for Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, and he's proved why through four games.

Daniels boasts a stellar 82.5 ESPN QBR (14th nationally) after passing for 817 yards, 12 TDs, and two picks on 69% completion. He's also added 26 carries for 159 yards and one score. KU likely won't have star running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. in this game due to injury, but Daniels is the real power force for the rushing attack.

Staying disciplined on the KU zone read and gang tackling Daniels will go a long way towards stopping CFB Graphs No. 2 overall offense nationally by EPA margin and top offense by EPA/dropback. It's a tough test for the Bearcats that only Missouri has solved this season (42-31 win in Week 2).

“I think when you look at their offense, if you can do a great job in stopping their running game, I think that certainly plays in your favor," Satterfield said. "Because if they're able to get that running game going, then they're just hard to stop. Just as soon as you commit and stop the run, they're going to get somebody free in the passing game, and now he's got easy throws. We need to do a great job of stopping the run to try to limit that.

"I think Missouri was able to do that, and that’s the one game Kansas has lost, even though they did still score a lot of points in that game. I think it gives you the best chance. Knocking them off the sticks and not letting them stay and just throw more routine, that's going to be the key, I think. That comes back to being fundamentally sound and tackling.”

It won't help Cincinnati with its own time of possession goals, but they may want to play bend, don't break defense against this unit.

Daniels grades out at just 61.1 overall on Pro Football Focus for passes 0-9 yards, but holds an 83-plus grade on all passes deeper than that. Getting him or the offense to commit a key turnover will be more likely on larger-play diets, or just get them off the field right away to act like a turnover.

Having Corleone in this equation is crucial as a factor in creating pressure right up the middle of Daniels' pocket. Cincinnati could be in trouble if Daniels keeps getting kept clean (just three sacks this season) and they have to start blitzing, taking away defenders for those intermediate and deep routes.

His meteoric talent will be a little too much to overcome on the road.

Prediction: 37-34 Jayhawks

Season Prediction Record: 3-0

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