Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Nebraska Cornhuskers

CINCINNATI — The long wait is over, and the trip to Kansas City is underway.

Cincinnati takes on the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN as underdogs in their first game of the 2025 season. The Bearcats enter the contest as 6.5-point consensus underdogs, with a point total set at 54.5 points.

ESPN's Football Power Index has Nebraska winning 66.2% of the time as the 29th-ranked team in FPI, while Cincinnati is 52nd nationally. Not many people are giving the Bearcats their pick to pull off the win.

"They don't really know what we have inside this building, only we do," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said. "From practicing each other, how we've been able to train all summer and come into camp. Our guys have a lot to prove. I think about the guys that play a lot now, like Dontay Corleone. He's got a lot to prove this year. Also, a guy like Joe [Royer], where he came back for a reason. So we have a lot of guys in this in this building, whether they're returning starters or guys that just got here, they have a lot to prove. What better way to prove it than against the team that many people picking against us.”

Cincinnati has lost just one season opener this decade (31-24 road loss to Arkansas in 2022), and a win could immediately spark a 3-0 start and put them halfway to bowl eligibility before the start of Big 12 play.

The contest marks the first-ever matchup against Nebraska, the 98th team UC has faced in its history.

Defensive X-Factor: Win In Man Coverage

Cincinnati's new battery at cornerback will be the biggest gauge for success on this side of the ball to start the season. Matthew McDoom and Logan Wilson likely have to play well for Cincinnati to consistently slow down sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola (2,819 passing yards last year on 67.1% completion for 13 TDs and 11 INTs) and his new star receiver, Kentucky transfer Dane Key (47 catches, 715 yards, two scores).

Raiola showed a clear difference in his play when facing man coverage compared to zone coverage last season. He's a strong layering passer who was already advanced in shifting zone defenses with his freshman eyes on those plays and finding the right gaps. He completed 74.6% of his passes in those situations, the seventh-best rate in the country, and paired it with a top-20 Pro Football Focus passing grade against zone.

He was much worse against man (55.7 passing grade, bottom 15 nationally), and likely knew that all offseason as a big factor to sharpen in his game. Enter Key to break up some of those tough man coverage matchups at 6-3, 210 pounds. He's going to give McDoom all he can handle with that size, and Cincinnati can't let him Moss the secondary from the start.

"He's got some dudes to throw to out there," Satterfield said about Raiola. "I would anticipate him being a really good quarterback. I think he was the number one quarterback in the country, maybe coming out. So, he certainly has all the talent in the world to make all the throws. It'll be a great challenge for our defense to try to confuse them a little bit, try to make them force the ball in some places. We have to be ready to go for anything that may try to do and put up with."

The whole wide receiver corps is at least six feet tall. Yet, if the new-look secondary holds up, Cincinnati's front-seven could break through a stout Cornhusker O-line. The unit won't break quickly as arguably one of the top-25 groups in the country. Pass blocking is expected to be a bigger issue than run blocking, leaving possible gaps for Cincinnati's pretty healthy front to get through.

It all starts with the coverage, though, and getting Raiola to revert to some of his poor-man coverage habits, then the front can clean things up as the passing plays last longer and longer. Raiola tends to carry the ball low with one hand, and Cincinnati has to strip him in those opportunities (seven fumbles last season).

“Naturally, we start up front," UC defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt said. "To me, that's where my mind always goes in any football game. So I believe our guys can impact the game up front, and that's really our down guys and our linebackers. That's really where the bulk of our experience resides as a defense. So those guys have had a great fall camp. We're healthy there, and we're excited to let those guys perform for sure."

Offensive X-Factor: Feed The New Weapons

A battle between two very different units, personnel-wise. Nebraska was one of the best run defenses in the country last season and projects to be very good once again (-.24 EPA/rush allowed, second-best in Big 10, 101.23 yards allowed per game, eighth nationally).

Cincinnati likely has to let Brendan Sorsby drive a win in this game and trust he's built enough wide receiver chemistry over this full offseason to get things going out of the gate. I expect Nebraska to dare him to do so by keying in on Cincinnati's own famous rushing attack and giving special attention to Royer in the first quarter.

All of Nebraska's linebackers are strong coverage players, while the secondary is the weakest aspect of the whole team. Cincinnati's receivers have been a big positive theme of the summer, and they are primed to directly impact winning Thursday night.

“The depth that we have, they all have their different traits," Sorsby said about the new wide receivers. "A lot of them can run, and a lot of them have different aspects to their game. Some of them are a little bit smoother runners. Some of them are a little bit faster down the field. Some guys can go up and make plays. Some guys are more contested catch guys, so just stuff like that. We'll find out more this season as we go week to week and see what these guys can truly do in-game. But we feel great about the group.”

The Cornhuskers ranked 65th nationally in passing yards per game allowed last season (216.7) and bring back a good chunk of that group in a senior-laden battery. A battery that had the 85th-best PFF coverage grade in the country last season (70.1).

Cincinnati's going to win with heavy running multiple times this season, but the passing attack has the top matchup to open Sorsby's first-ever college season with the same offensive staff season to season.

“They're a physical group, top to bottom defensively, it's their brand," Sorsby noted. "It's our job to find ways to get our guys the ball in space. It's going to be tough to tackle for the first game of the season. That's just how it is. So we got to do our best to get the ball in space and make guys miss. But they're a talented group of DBs and a talented defense in general. So it's our job to go out there and execute.”

Prediction: 28-27 Cornhuskers

Bookmark Bearcats Talk for the latest news, breakdowns, and so much more. Check out our YouTube page as well, starting with the video below.

Also, don't miss the podcast, Bearcat Blitz, wherever you get your shows!

Apple: http://apple.co/4fI26zj

Spotify: http://bit.ly/3OqvD4l

YouTube: http://bit.ly/414XiQ6

-----

Be sure to keep it locked in on Bearcats Talk all the time as we cover the trials and tribulations of the Big 12!

Follow Bearcats Talk on Twitter: @BearcatsTalk

Like Bearcats Talk on Facebook: Bearcats Talk