If Beating 2 Top 15 Teams is not Enough to Move Needle What is?

Dabo Swinney reminds us at least once a week, “The next game is the most important game on the schedule” or “The goal this week is to be 1-0.”

I get it. Clemson’s head coach needs his team to be focused on the task at hand, which this week is at Boston College.

However, unlike the team, we don’t. We have the luxury to look ahead and maybe predict how things might turn out.

And, with that understanding, I think we need to start looking at the big picture. We need to analyze what we have already seen and use it to foreshadow what could happen in the months to come.

I know some of you are going to say the Associated Press Poll does not mean anything because it is the College Playoff Committee that chooses the four-team playoff field. And you are right, they do.

However, to say it does not mean anything is wrong. It means a lot. It indirectly influences the way members of the committee think, especially when they are setting up the first ranking, which will come out on Nov. 1.

Where am I going with this?

Look at it this way, Clemson is one of only four programs this season with two AP Top 25 victories to its credit, alongside Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas Tech. Clemson, Alabama and Georgia are the only teams in the country with 3-0 records this season against teams presently over .500.

And finally, Clemson is also the only program in the country with multiple wins against teams presently in the AP Top 15, as NC State and Wake Forest sit this week at No. 14 and No. 15, respectively.

That is great right? If the Tigers keep winning, they are on their way to the CFP, again.

As the great Lee Corso likes to say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

Despite getting back-to-back wins over top-15 teams, including one on the road, Clemson stayed stuck at No. 5 in the latest AP Poll. The same AP Poll will have an influence on the committee. Trust me on that, they will.

While Michigan, who played powerhouses such as winless Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn and an Iowa team that has no pulse on offense, stayed at No. 4. The Wolverines’ best win to date was a home win over Maryland.

Then there is Ohio State.

You want to hear something funny? The Buckeyes have not played a road game this season. They opened the year with five straight home games, and finally go on the road this week and get a 2-3 Michigan State team.

I know, Ohio State beat Notre Dame. You are right. The Irish were No. 5 in the country at the time. Guess what? They are not ranked anymore.

The Buckeyes’ other wins have come against Arkansas State, Toledo, a bad Wisconsin team—who has already fired its head coach—and Rutgers.

I know what you are saying, “Don’t worry, Will. It will take care of itself. Ohio State and Michigan will cancel each other out.”

That’s true. But will Clemson still be No. 5 at that time? Will an undefeated Clemson even be No. 5 in the CFP rankings when that happens?

Odds are, Clemson will not play another team that will have a chance to be ranked at the end of the season. The Tigers need NC State and Wake to keep winning, which can help.

But will it help? And what if they don’t? Because the Tigers did not make any traction in the AP Poll following two huge conference wins in back-to-back weeks. Wins no one else in the country can come close to right now. Victories over two opponents everyone picked to challenge Clemson for ACC supremacy.

If Michigan was ranked No. 5 and Clemson was No. 4, and it was coming off back-to-back wins over top 15 foes, do you think they would have jumped Clemson?

What about Ohio State? Don’t you think they would have jumped Clemson in that scenario?

Of course, they would have. That’s why it is a problem.

The ACC is not getting the same level of respect as the SEC and the Big Ten, though the league has five teams currently ranked in the top 25. That’s two more teams than the Big Ten at the moment.

If Ohio State and Michigan beat No. 10 Penn State in the next few weeks, people will notice. The pollsters will notice, and the CFP Committee will definitely notice.

The only other ranked team Ohio State and Michigan might play the rest of the year is each other.

Clemson’s dramatic double-overtime win at No. 15 Wake Forest came at a bad time. So did its impressive victory over No. 14 NC State, a team that beat the Tigers last year.

But the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game isn’t who Clemson needs to worry about. We all know, if Alabama and Georgia go through the regular season undefeated, the loser in the SEC Championship Game will make the CFP.

So, there are two spots already gone. Then, the winner of Michigan-Ohio State, will likely get the third spot. That leaves one spot for left.

Right now, there are several teams competing with Clemson to get that final spot. USC and Oklahoma State are right on the Tigers’ heels, and they too are undefeated through the first five weeks of the season.

Penn State could climb over them with wins over Ohio State and Michigan in the next few weeks. What about one-loss Utah could they make the jump if they beat USC.

I know a lot has to happen between now and Dec. 4, when the CFP chooses its four playoff teams. And it likely will.

One of the things that has to happen is Clemson has to go undefeated. They can’t slip up, not even once.

Also, understand that even if the Tigers do finish the regular season undefeated and win the ACC, there is still no guarantee. If wins over No. 15 Wake Forest and No. 14 NC State do not move the needle, then what will?

I guess we will have to wait and find out.

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