Odds and Ends: Clemson Looks to Continue Dominance Over Rival FSU

At 4-3 overall and 0-7 against the spread, not much has gone right for Clemson in 2021 because of injuries, lack of offensive execution and too many mental mistakes.

However, some of the frustrations from this disappointing campaign can be washed away with a win over a rival. Enter Florida State.

The last time the Seminoles were competitive in this series was the 2016 game down in Tallahassee, which Clemson won 37-34. FSU hasn't beaten the Tigers since 2014, and this former ACC power hasn't stayed within 30 points of Clemson the last two meetings.

Of course, those came with Trevor Lawrence on the field. These rivals didn't play in 2020, but the Tigers have won and covered the last three games against FSU. Are they headed for a fourth?

This season's sample size says no way. Clemson, a 9.5-point favorite on SI Sportsbook, hasn't been able to dominate an FBS team this entire season, winning by a margin of 15 points in three ACC victories. The Tigers have lost by a total of 23 points to No. 1 Georgia, NC State and No. 17 Pittsburgh. They were favored in all but last week's game at Pitt.

The Seminoles are 3-4 overall and against the spread in 2021, bouncing back from an 0-4 start to win three consecutive games over Syracuse, UMass and UNC. They covered against Notre Dame in Week 1, losing 41-38 in overtime as a home underdog of seven points.

So which do you go with: Clemson's recent success against FSU or the Tigers' lack of success in 2021?

If you choose the first one, think about what's happened this week. Head coach Dabo Swinney gave passionate speeches about how hard winning is in college football. The team is also still upset over last year when FSU decided after Clemson arrived that the Tigers put the Seminoles in an unsafe situation, although Swinney's squad followed COVID-19 protocol, so the game was canceled.

Swinney publicly wanted a forfeit. The ACC felt otherwise. Although both Swinney and FSU coach Mike Norvell tried to downplay it this week, bad blood was formed and it was expected during the preseason that this would be one of those ultimate motivational situations for the Tigers.

But they have bigger fish to fry in terms of getting ready for this game. Clemson was down 17 scholarship players by the end of last week's game at Pitt, and the Tigers have to learn to play without offensive lineman Matt Bockhorst (ACL tear) and running back Kobe Pace (COVID-19).

Clemson does get receivers Joseph Ngata and E.J. Williams back this week, so the passing game has more depth to it, but the Tigers are down to three scholarship running backs for Saturday.

In terms of on the field, two areas stand out: Clemson's defense has to keep FSU quarterback Jordan Travis in the pocket and away from scrambling, and the offense has to establish a consistent run game against a big Seminole front while also protecting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in passing situations.

Which team wins those battles will likely win and cover the spread.

The total for the game is 47.5 points. The Tigers have only gone over once this season while the Seminoles have gone under in four of their seven contests.

Betting picks

Spread: FSU

Total: Under

Best bet (4-3): We got back to the winning side with another easy first-half under in the Pitt game last week. Sure, it's probably another good play this Saturday, but there's one that looks even better. Clemson's team total on FanDuel Sportsbook is set at over four touchdowns scored by the Tigers. Yes, let's take UNDER 28.5 points for Clemson in this one. This team hasn't scored that against an FBS team this year.

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