Odds and Ends: Is Clemson More Trustworthy Side in Cheez-It Bowl Against Iowa State?

No. 19 Clemson is 4-8 against the spread this season while Iowa State is 5-7.

In Wednesday's Cheez-It Bowl at 5:45 p.m. in Orlando, something has to give between these two teams but based on the betting line, it's about as close to a toss-up as a game can get.

The Tigers still hold the advantage as a 1-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, but the line doesn't tell a story of balance. Both teams come into the game with critical changes. Iowa State has key opt-outs. Clemson does not, but the Tigers have injuries.

Neither has changed how bettors feel about this game. Even Iowa State running back Breece Hall sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft didn't do much to affect the line. Clemson losing both of its coordinators didn't either.

What we do know is Dabo Swinney is 8-5 all-time in bowl games, including wins in seven of the last nine. Iowa State is 5-11 all-time as a program in bowls and 2-2 under Matt Campbell, so the edge there is obvious.

But to trust either side, you've got to have faith in a matchup that isn't advantageous. Clemson can't win the game without running the football effectively. That's been the offense's calling card in the second half of the season behind running backs Will Shipley, Kobe Pace and Phil Mafah.

Iowa State, which has the third-best rushing defense in the Big 12, will look to take that away with its patented 3-3-5 defense that will surely stack the box and force Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to beat them despite a sprained knee and broken finger.

On the other side of the ball, the Cyclones have to find a way to move the ball without their best offensive playmaker. Sure, quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown for nearly 12,000 career yards, but in the team's last win, a 48-14 drubbing of TCU, Hall accounted for over 240 yards.

There's going to be a ton of pressure on Purdy against the second stingiest defense in college football in terms of points allowed per game, and the Tigers don't have opt-outs to possibly swing things in the other direction.

Bottom line, the team to trust here is Clemson, which has a tangible goal of going for win No. 10 to increase its streak to 11 consecutive years of double-digit victories. However, Iowa State is a well-coached team with a veteran quarterback who won't be intimidated by a Brent Venables-less defense.

For two teams that started the season in the top-10 and had greater aspirations than a non-College Football Playoff bowl game in December, the Tigers appear to be the more motivated team, and if the offense can do anything positive in this game, it should spell a victory for Clemson.

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson

Total: Under 44.5

Best bet (6-6): Whether it was a high-juice play or a shrewd parlay, Clemson easily took care of business against South Carolina to get us back to .500 heading into the postseason. Let's not mess this play up and let's get a win to end the year on a bright note. The play for the Cheez-It Bowl is under 44.5. Clemson is 7-5 under this season and 4-3 when the total is 46.5 or less. Both have good defenses and these teams will be fairly conservative, so expect a long feeling-out period that will lead to scores late and the outcome getting under the number.

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