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What Simulation Model Says About Clemson's Matchup With California

Here is what the advanced analytics are saying about Clemson's important matchup with the Golden Bears this Friday.
Griffin Barfield|
Advanced analytics are in Clemson's favor to win on Friday night against Cal.
Advanced analytics are in Clemson's favor to win on Friday night against Cal. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Plenty of external factors are affecting Clemson’s matchup with Cal on Friday. Playing multiple time zones away, an adjusted time of the week for the game and the 10:30 p.m. kickoff could all play a significant factor throughout the week. 

While the notorious “Calgorithm” has continued to roll throughout social media, becoming prevalent since the Golden Bears joined the ACC at the beginning of 2024, Clemson has had to use plenty of different analytics to have the most optimal adjustment to the time of the game. However, those aren’t the only two places where analytics will tell the story. 

With such a tightly-knit game, Clemson Tigers on SI have decided to use a simulation model to see where the game could go. Fortunately, it does go in the Tigers’ favor. 

Versus Sports Simulator predicts Clemson to defeat Cal on Friday night by a score of 27-25. While the probability of winning has gone down since the beginning of the Tigers’ season, going from 70% to 55%, there is a lean towards Clemson leaving the Golden State with its second ACC win of the season. 

The model has head coach Dabo Swinney’s group as the No. 39 team in the country, while Cal is at No. 62. Clemson’s graded as a C+ on offense and a B- on defense, compared to the Golden Bears’ C rating on both sides of the ball. 

In theory, the model believes that Cal is a mediocre team by statistical standards, and if Clemson can play like it did in the second half of the win over North Carolina, it has a great chance to be the Tigers’ third straight win. 

The betting markets have switched between Clemson and Cal throughout the week, but the edge was slightly given to the Tigers as of Thursday evening. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Clemson a 1.5-point edge over Cal, while the over/under line is set at 50.5 points. 

Disclaimer: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Versus Sports Simulator would have the Tigers being on the right side of that line, as well as more points than less. 

Another metric we can use to get a general idea of advanced analytics is ESPN’s BIll Connelly, whose SP+ metric also has the Tigers defeating Cal in Berkeley on Friday night. Clemson is predicted to win 27-23, being a very similar outcome to the one we talk about above. 

Overall, the expectation is that Clemson is the “hunted” in this case, playing a Golden Bears team with some new energy under head coach Tosh Lupoi. However, if the Tigers can weather the storm and adjust accordingly, it sets up an exciting matchup with the No. 6 Miami Hurricanes when they return home to begin October. 

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Griffin Barfield
GRIFFIN BARFIELD

Griffin is a communications major who was the Sports Editor for The Tiger at Clemson University. He led a team of 20+ reporters after working his way up through the ranks as a staff writer, sideline reporter, and assistant sports editor.

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