What the Advanced Analytics Say About Furman vs. Clemson

The Clemson Tigers will host the Furman Paladins in the team’s final home game of the 2025 season. Being both Military Appreciation Day and Senior Day for the Tigers, it will be an emotional game for many, playing Furman for the first time since the 2022 season.

Clemson is a 41.5-point favorite to win, according to The Action Network.

ESPN Bill Connelly’s invented model, the SP+, has the Tigers winning around the same range against the Paladins, being the only advanced analytic model that breaks down the in-state contest.

Connelly’s model predicts that Clemson will beat Furman by a score of 47-6, having a 100% win probability and flirting with that 41.5-point spread that was issued earlier.

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After the team’s ranked win over Louisville last Friday, which put Clemson on the brink of making a bowl game this season, the SP+ rankings have the Tigers going from No. 45 to No. 39, being the fourth-best team that is .500 or worse this season. Only Penn State (19th), Florida State (28th) and Auburn (32nd) are higher than Clemson this season in those rankings.

Head coach Dabo Swinney’s team dropped in offensive ranking from last week, going from 55th to 57th, but continues to rise defensively. The Tigers jump nine spots from 41st to 32nd after another strong defensive effort against the Cardinals.

ESPN’s FPI rankings have the Tigers up six spots as well, from 37th to 31st from last week. Clemson has a 98.9% chance to leave Death Valley with a win on Saturday night, but it only has a 41.1% chance to win out, adding in the Palmetto Bowl at South Carolina next weekend.

Because the Paladins are an FCS team, they are not represented on either of these models, which are only for FBS teams.

All numbers point to the Tigers picking up their sixth win of the season, which grants the team bowl game eligibility for the 21st straight season, which is the fourth-longest streak in the country. Despite not being the season that Clemson wanted, opening up as No. 4 in the country, a strong finish could help kickstart a strong offseason for Swinney and his team.

A win would give the team its 27th consecutive season of eligibility, keeping in mind that Clemson declined to play in a bowl game in the 2004 season after multiple players got involved in a brawl against South Carolina in that year’s Palmetto Bowl.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. from Memorial Stadium, with the game being broadcasted on the CW Network.