What the Analytics Say About Clemson vs. Louisville

On Friday night, the Clemson Tigers will travel to the Bluegrass State to face the Louisville Cardinals at the L&M Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Cardinals look to bounce back with an important win for their ACC Championship quest, while the Tigers are looking to stack another win after last weekend.

Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite at home, according to most oddsmakers.

Here’s what the advanced analytics say about Friday’s primetime matchup in the ACC

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys favors the home team, giving Louisville a 61.1% chance to win against Clemson. The model predicts the Cardinals to win by a score of 25.4-21.3.

After Clemson dropped five spots the week before, it moved back to 41st in the rankings after its win over the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday. The Tigers have an opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency at 42nd, with a ranking of 37th on the defensive side of the ball.

Louisville is known for its defense this season, which the number reflects effectively. Its opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked at 19th, being 76th in the country on offense, according to the model.

The Cardinals pose a threat on special teams as well, being ranked No. 4 in the country with the unit. Clemson, on the flip side, just makes the top 100 at 99th.

The model predicts the point of emphasis will be Clemson’s offense against Louisville’s defense, which is 13th in FBS allowing only 296.8 yards a contest.

SP+

The invented model by ESPN’s Bill Connelly gives more credit to the Cardinals, favoring Louisville more to win the game compared to other models. Connelly believes that Clemson will lose the game by an estimated score of 29-23, giving the Tigers only a 36% chance to win the game on Friday.

WEEK 12 SP+ PICKS

Bama 25, OU 24 😬
Georgia 27, Texas 23
ND 32, Pitt 24
Duke 30, UVA 28
USC 29, Iowa 24
Utah 35, Baylor 22
Louisville 29, Clemson 23
Rebs 35, Gators 17
BYU 30, TCU 23

Full list: https://t.co/1UvCJdO4pY pic.twitter.com/epuSVxWH8M
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 9, 2025

After Louisville’s loss to Cal this past Saturday in overtime, the team fell three spots to 26th. The Cardinals have the No. 37-ranked offense and No. 27-ranked defense, falling three spots compared to last week.

Clemson, on the other hand, rose four spots to 41st in the country, having the 55th-ranked offense and 41st-ranked defense.

The FPI gives Clemson more credit, but still favors Louisville to win the game. The Cardinals have a 54.9% chance to win the game, with home-field advantage playing a factor into the favorite.

This is the only model that has Clemson ahead of Louisville, with the Tigers being ranked four spots ahead of the Cardinals in the FPI rankings. Head coach Dabo Swinney’s team is 32nd, while Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals are at No. 36.

CFP Graphs

CFP Graphs is more bullish on Clemson, but still predicts that Louisville will win the game. The Tigers have a 44.1% chance to win the game, predicting the game to be 25.48-22.29 in favor of the Cardinals.

Some reasons for this model include Louisville’s ability to stop opposing offenses from getting quality points on drives. The Cardinal defense only allows 2.71 points per quality drive, which is 13th in the country in doing so. The unit also only allows a 32.7% conversion rate on third and fourth down, which is 15th.

Offensively, Louisville is 21st in quality drive ratio at 58.2%, while Clemson remains at 76th at 48.8%. However, the Tigers are 24th in net points per drive (0.7), ahead of Louisville at No. 30 (0.66).

What this means is that continuing to move the ball at an elite level, converting important third-and-short plays and picking up quality drives will be imperative for Clemson to leave Louisville, Kentucky, with an away win. If the Cardinals' defense can get those key stops, it could create an ugly game for the Tigers, especially with the power that Louisville has in its run game.

Kick off is set for 7:30 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.