What the Analytics Say About Clemson vs. South Carolina

The Clemson Tigers are set to face the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday afternoon in this year’s Palmetto Bowl.

Clemson is looking to take back the Palmetto Bowl trophy, while South Carolina looks to end its season on a high note. The Gamecocks are a 3.5-point favorite, according to most oddsmakers.

Here is what the advanced analytics say about the in-state rivalry:

BCFToys

BCFToys gives the Gamecocks an impressive 74.9% chance to win the game on Saturday. The estimated score is 26.9-17, being almost a double-digit margin, according to the model.

Clemson remains around a similar range like before, being ranked 46th in the country in the FEI ratings. However, South Carolina is 25th, being the best-ranked opponent that the Tigers will play, according to this model.

The Gamecocks have the No. 59-ranked offense in the country, but hold the No. 12-ranked defense in the FBS. Clemson, on the other hand, has the 52nd-ranked opponent-adjusted offense and 43rd-ranked defense.

South Carolina’s famous “Beamer Ball” on special teams is 36th in the country, while Clemson’s special teams unit is 82nd.

This model believes that the Tigers will struggle to get points on their opponent in an away environment, with South Carolina being 38th in scoring defense in the FBS, only allowing 21.5 points per game in an explosive SEC conference. If Clemson can flip the script, however, it could be very beneficial to the team’s result on Saturday.

SP+

On the flip side, ESPN Bill Connelly’s invented metric picks Clemson to go into Columbia, South Carolina, and leave with a win by the slimmest of margins.

The SP+ has Clemson winning by only 0.5 points, with the projected score, which is rounded to the nearest whole number, by a score of 24-24.

WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS

Rebs 37, #Clanga 22
UGA 36, GT 23
Indiana 43, Purdue 9
A&M 30, Texas 25
Miami 30, Pitt 24
Ohio St 31, Michigan 17
Oregon 29, UW 23
Vols 32, Vandy 31
FSU 28, Florida 21
Bama 27, Auburn 21
Irish 42, Stanford 10

Some strange lines in here.https://t.co/w9ANgYY9XO pic.twitter.com/Ob0uB01pN2
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 24, 2025

The model is more bullish on Clemson, which has the Tigers ranked at No. 36 compared to the Gamecocks’ No. 50 ranking. Head coach Dabo Swinney’s team has its offense and defense ranked at 61st and 29th, respectively, while head coach Shane Beamer’s team has the 74th and 27th-ranked offense and defense in the country, respectively.

South Carolina has the better ranking at special teams, being ranked No. 20 compared to Clemson’s No. 38 ranking. Both teams have gone up their overall ranking since last week.

ESPN Analytics gives the Gamecocks a 63.5% chance to beat Clemson at home, being higher on rankings than the Tigers in the College Football Power Index rankings. South Carolina is 27th, the highest-ranked team with a losing record, while Clemson is at 33rd in the country in these rankings.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs puts the needle back on the home side, predicting that South Carolina will beat Clemson by an estimated score of 23.16-21.79. The Tigers have a 47.5% chance to beat the Gamecocks in their own building, according to the model.

A few statistics pop out on both sides of the game, especially on defense. The South Carolina offense against Clemson’s defense will be the unit to watch, especially with how the Gamecocks were successful with extending plays from quarterback LaNorris Sellers.

The Tigers are actually the best team in the country at limiting quarterback scramble rate, only allowing a 3.6% scramble rate on passing plays. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, scramble Sellers on 12.3% of plays. Similarly, Clemson is 23rd in missed tackle rate at 5.9%, while South Carolina breaks tackles at a rate of 9.6%, 41st in the country.

Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s defense is eighth in the country in third and fourth down success, limiting only 31.7% of conversions compared to South Carolina’s offensive 35.9% rate on those downs. That was Clemson’s issue last season, allowing plays to be extended on important downs, and Allen has stressed the need to stop that this season.

On the flip side of the ball, the Gamecocks only allow 2.68 points per quality drive, which is 11th in the country, meaning when Clemson is moving the ball on important drives, it must finish, especially in an away environment, to prevent momentum from switching.

Most models have this game as a coin flip, like many Clemson games this season, meaning that viewers are in for another close game on Saturday afternoon.

Kickoff is set for noon from Williams-Brice Stadium, and the game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.