Three Keys for Colorado To Beat Illinois in the NCAA Tournament

The Colorado Buffaloes have qualified for the NCAA Tournament, and there are three keys to watch if Colorado wants to advance past the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first round.

Colorado Buffaloes head coach Jr. Payne yells out during the second round game of the Big 12 Tournament inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri on Thursday, March 5, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Colorado Buffaloes earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 10 seed, setting up a matchup with the seventh-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini. 

In March, the margin for error is slim, so each aspect of the game matters a whole lot more, and Colorado coach JR Payne will have to have her group prepared for a tough first-round battle. Here are three key matchups to watch for in this first-round game.

Mar 7, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes forward Jade Masogayo (14) drives through the West Virginia Mountaineers defense during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Rebounding Battle

With games of this magnitude, one of the more important categories is rebounding. Being able to generate extra shot opportunities through offensive rebounds is crucial. 

For the season, Colorado averages 38.24 rebounds per game, which ranks 108th in the nation. On the other side, Illinois averages 35.41 rebounds per game, good for 245th in the country.

While the rankings don’t suggest it, this is a tight margin as the teams' averages are separated by 2.83 rebounds. Each team must do its best to box out and limit second-chance opportunities, because if they do not, the game could get out of hand on either side. 

The Fighting Illini specifically have to do a good job on the defensive glass because Colorado has the capability to grab a lot of offensive rebounds. The Buffaloes rank 75th in the nation, averaging 13.2 offensive rebounds per game. 

Colorado forward Anaelle Dutat is the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 8.1 per game.

Fellow forwards Jade Masogayo and Logyn Greer each average 4.9 rebounds per game and could be problems for Illinois on the glass as well.

Mar 7, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Desiree Wooten (3) edges around West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jordan Harrison (10) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Bench Scoring

A lot of times in the NCAA Tournament, the best players will perform, but the game can be decided by the players coming off the bench.

In this respect, Colorado is one of the best teams in the nation as they average 25.6 points per game from their bench, which is 22nd in the nation. This could give the Buffaloes a huge advantage to create separation when the starters leave the game for both squads. 

Leading the way for Colorado off the bench is guard Desiree Wooten, and forward Logyn Greer. Wooten is the Buffaloes' leading scorer, averaging 13.3 points per game, and Greer adds 9.3 points per game herself as a crucial scorer. 

Like they have been doing all season long, Wooten and Greer have the opportunity to give the Buffaloes a boost when the starters come out, which can help to extend a lead or cut into a deficit. 

For Illinois, their bench averages 18.3 points per game, but Colorado does have a decisive advantage in this area. The Fighting Illini bench must show up, but the starters may also have to contribute more than usual against a solid Buffaloes team. 

Mar 6, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Zyanna Walker (1) attempts to bypass the defense of the Baylor Bears during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Colorado Forcing Turnovers

The third critical matchup is Colorado’s ability to get steals and Illinois’ ability to protect the basketball. 

During 2025, the Buffaloes have had a knack for getting steals as they average 9.5 steals per game and are the 92nd team in the country in that regard. 

Players like Zyanna Walker, Kennedy Sanders, Anaelle Dutat, Desiree Wooten, and Jade Masogayo all average at least 1.0 steal per game, giving Colorado several defenders to create difficulties for Illinois on the perimeter.

Illinois, on offense, has done a great job taking care of the ball, only turning it over 12.4 times per game, which is tied for 13th in the country. Illinois has to do a great job protecting the ball like they have done all season, and Colorado could get running in transition on live ball turnovers.

This game may very well come down to these three matchups and who can take advantage of the other team’s mistakes. Coaching will be very important as well, and JR Payne's ability to adjust during the game could become one of the more important pieces to a potential Buffaloes' win.

However, one X-factor to watch is how each team handles the pressure and which players excel under the bright lights. 

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