Blue Devil Country

3 Biggest Keys to Success As Duke Visits Louisville

Duke basketball is gearing up for its biggest conference game yet. Following two tight victories, here's what the Blue Devils need to do to secure a victory.
Hugh Straine|
Jan 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) celebrates making a three point shot with guard Isaiah Evans (3) during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Jan 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) celebrates making a three point shot with guard Isaiah Evans (3) during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Duke basketball program (13-1, 2-0 ACC) is set to take on No. 20 Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center on Jan. 6 at 7:00 pm ET. After two closer-than-expected wins for the Blue Devils to begin ACC action, an 85-79 victory over Georgia Tech (10-5, 1-1 ACC) at home and a 91-87 win over Florida State (7-8, 0-2 ACC) on the road, they look to earn their biggest in-conference victory over the ACC's second-best squad.

Louisville boasts one of the most prolific offenses that college basketball has to offer, but it will be without 5-star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who contributes 16.6 points and 5.1 assists per game for the Cardinals. Brown will be missing his fifth game in a row with a lower back injury, and Louisville has gone 2-2 in the stretch without him, most recently falling 80-76 to Stanford (12-3, 1-1 ACC) on the road.

Despite Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils riding a two-game win streak, the team hasn't looked nearly as sharp as it did through the first 11 games of the 2025-26 season. So what are the biggest keys to success for Duke to earn a fifth victory over a ranked opponent?

Run Louisville off the Three-Point Line

Louisville has the highest three-point shot tendency in the nation, with 54.6% of its total shot attempts coming from beyond the arc, according to KenPom. However, the insane volume has hurt the Cardinals at times. In Louisville's 11 wins, it has shot a combined 38.9% from the perimeter on an average of 35 attempts per game. In its three losses, that number drops to 21.4% while still attempting 33. The Cardinals have four guards in the rotation shooting over 37% from three on the season, and although they haven't been terribly efficient (107th at KenPom in team three-point percentage at 35.3), the sheer volume with which Louisville attempts outside shots makes it extremely dangerous for opposing defenses. Duke currently ranks 54th in three-point defense at 30.3%, according to KenPom.

Knock Down Free Throws

The free-throw line has been Duke's biggest struggle to start the year, as the Blue Devils are making just 71.6% of their attempts at the line (188th at KenPom). In Louisville's three losses, it has surrendered an average of 31.3 free throw attempts to those opponents. Duke fans were subject to a miserable performance from the charity stripe in Duke's lone loss at Madison Square Garden to No. 14 Texas Tech, as the team went 17-of-29 (59%) as a team en route to a one-point loss. However, the Blue Devils put together their best performance from the stripe in a much-needed way against Florida State, as they knocked down 23-of-25 (92%) attempts while escaping with a four-point win. Louisville isn't elite defensively, and this contest has the makeup to be a high-scoring affair that comes down to the final minute.

Control the Tempo

Louisville likes to play fast, and that's the main reason it boasts one of the most electrifying offenses in college basketball. Duke can get out and run in transition, but the half-court is where the Blue Devils will win this game. Although it's been questionable as of late, Duke is elite enough defensively to slow down the Cardinals when they can't get out in transition. The Blue Devils can match the length of Louisville on all five positions on the floor, and not allowing Pat Kelsey's club to find a rhythm will be a huge factor in this one. As Louisville wants to take threes, making it work for them with half-court sets as opposed to catch-and-shoot opportunities with rhythm in transition would be a huge advantage for Duke.

Stay tuned to Duke Blue Devils On SI for more Duke basketball news.

As always, make sure you stay up to date with all Duke content by following us on Facebook, by clicking HERE, and following us on X (formerly Twitter) HERE.

Published
Hugh Straine
HUGH STRAINE

Hugh Straine is an accomplished writer and proud Bucknell University alumnus, holding a Bachelor of Arts in Creative Writing. He has served as editor of The Bucknellian, worked as an analyst for ESPN+ and Hulu, and currently reports on college sports as a general reporter for On SI.