Florida State Presents Scary Challenge for Duke in ACC Tournament

The Duke Blue Devils begin their hunt today for their third ACC Tournament title in four seasons under head coach Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils enter the conference tournament as the outright ACC regular season champions and the No. 1 seed in the tournament.

However, the Blue Devils will not be fully healthy, as starters Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster will both miss the entirety of the ACC Tournament with foot injuries. Ngongba is expected to be back for the NCAA Tournament, but Foster's status for the remainder of the season is unknown.

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke rolled through the rest of the ACC, especially down the stretch of the regular season. Following its crushing 71-68 defeat in Chapel Hill to North Carolina off a Seth Trimble buzzer-beater three, it ended the season winning eight in a row by an average of 23.1 points.

8-seed Florida State took down 9-seed California in the second round of the ACC Tournament, paving the way for the Blue Devils to take on the Seminoles for a spot in the semifinals.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA;Duke Blue Devils forward Dame Sarr (7) reacts after hitting a three-pointer during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Florida State Potential Bid Stealer out of ACC

Florida State improved dramatically from an analytical standpoint towards the end of the regular season, and looks like a true bid stealer. The Seminoles won 10 of their final 13 games of the regular season, including wins over Virginia Tech, Clemson, and SMU.

The Noles currently rank 58th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They like to play quick and turn contests into track meets, which is the opposite of what Duke likes to do.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) controls the ball during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Duke beats its opponents down in the half-court with its overwhelming defensive length, and against an FSU club that looks to win by running up the score, controlling the tempo is likely the biggest key for success for the Blue Devils.

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Robert McCray V. (6) scores in the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Robert McCray V Will Be a Problem

Florida State senior guard Robert McCray V is one of the most prolific guards in the ACC, currently sitting 14th in the conference in points per game (16.1) and third in the conference in assists per game (6.1).

The two-time transfer has been hot and cold this season, but can score in bunches for an FSU team that looks to keep the game at a high-pace. In the Seminoles' 95-89 victory over the Golden Bears to advance to the quarterfinals, McCray tallied a season-high 30 points to go along with eight assists, five rebounds, two steals, and a block on 10-of-17 (58.8%) shooting from the field and 4-of-7 (57.1%) shooting from three.

Florida State Seminoles guard Robert McCray V. (6) drives the ball to the hoot. The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Southern Methodist University Mustangs at the Tucker Civic Center on Saturday, March 7, 2026. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

McCray has gone for 20 points or more in 10 games this season.

No team in the history of college basketball has won the national title after losing its first conference tournament game, and Florida State presents a challenge for the Blue Devils.