What Virginia’s Close Win Over North Carolina Means for Duke

With the Blue Devils on bye, here is a look at how Virginia-North Carolina played out.

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers players celebrate after stopping North Carolina Tar Heels short of the goal line on a two point try to win in overtime at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers escaped with a 17-16 victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels, needing overtime to prevail. The Cavaliers stopped the Tar Heels on a two-point conversion, which would have given North Carolina the win if successful. However, running back Benjamin Hall was inches short of reaching the pylon.

North Carolina controlled the flow of the contest, but ultimately, three turnovers, including an interception in the end zone, proved to be too much for the Tar Heels to overcome.

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown in overtime as North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Gavin Gibson (5) and linebacker Mikai Gbayor (4) and defensive back Coleman Bryson (16) defend at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Not only was it a missed opportunity for North Carolina, but it also prevented the Duke Blue Devils from making up ground, despite being on a bye week.

Keeping all of that in mind, here is how the result of this game affects the Blue Devils' chances of qualifying for the ACC Championship game later in December.

What does Virginia's Win Mean for Duke?

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) breaks a tackle and scores a touchdown as North Carolina Tar Heels linebacker Khmori House (7) defends in the second quarer at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Obviously, it was not the end result that the Blue Devils were hoping for, but there are certainly reasons to feel positive from Duke's perspective.

For one, the Cavaliers looked quite vulnerable in this contest, as they were outgained by nearly 100 yards, took six sacks, and were overall completely inept offensively.

Quarterback Chandler Morris' performance was quite concerning, as he completed 20-of-35 pass attempts for 200 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He threw errant passes all game, including two consecutive misses near the goal line that were rudimentary throws.

Oct 18, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) passes the ball against the Washington State Cougars during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The win sends the Cavaliers to 7-1 overall and 4-0 in conference play. However, watching this game, it is apparent that Virginia is not as good as its record.

Despite the victory furthering the Cavaliers' control of their own destiny, Duke's confidence should not waver when considering Virginia's current position in the conference.

Virginia's last three wins have come with a combined margin of victory of eight total points, which included a game-winning safety against Washington State last week and a game-clinching stop in overtime on Saturday against North Carolina.

Aug 28, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a touchdown pass against the Elon Phoenix during the second half at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images | James Guillory-Imagn Images

Additionally, the Blue Devils will have their chance to take matters into their own hands when they host the Cavaliers on Nov. 15.

If Virginia plays remotely close to how it did on Saturday, unlike North Carolina, Duke will take advantage of every opportunity the Cavaliers present. Darian Mensah is light-years ahead of Gio Lopez, who was putrid, despite having ample opportunities to take control of the game.

Oct 17, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) evades tackle by California Golden Bears linebacker Cade Uluave (0) in the second quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Virginia was fortunate Lopez was the signal caller on the other side on Saturday. The junior quarterback attempted 5.8 yards per pass, and throwing two costly interceptions.

Duke is still within striking distance, and fortunately for the Blue Devils, they will have their opportunity to deal with Virginia themselves in a few weeks.

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