When Will the Last Eight Undefeated Men’s College Basketball Teams Lose?

Between elite squads to plucky upstarts, there’s a swath of the sport that could go deep into the conference slate before taking a blemish.

Cameron Boozer has led Duke to an undefeated start to the season. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

In the first five weeks of the college basketball season, we’ve seen the undefeated teams count drop from 365 to just eight remaining perfect squads. The remaining unbeatens are a combination of elite teams in the sport as well as a few plucky upstarts hoping to keep the magic alive as conference play approaches. 

Who will be the last undefeated team left standing? And when will the last eight take their first loss? Sports Illustrated dives in. 

Michigan

Michigan’s dominance at the Players Era Championship is hard to forget, with three 30-plus-point victories in three days to vault up to No. 1 in basically every analytically driven national ranking. The Wolverines’ overwhelming size and physicality around the rim gives them a very high floor to find ways to win even when they struggle with turnovers or poor three-point shooting, as we saw in closer-than-expected calls against Wake Forest and TCU. The rigors of Big Ten play seem likely to trip them up once or twice, but this Michigan team looks like a machine. 

Projected First Loss: Jan. 30 at Michigan State

Can you imagine how electric East Lansing, Mich., would be if Michigan came to town in late January still undefeated? That’s a scenario very much on the table given the fairly manageable January slate in front of the Wolverines. The trip west to play Washington and Oregon could be tricky given the travel, but if not there, it’d take a pretty shocking upset for Michigan to lose before then. Don’t count on an undefeated season though; at Purdue, Duke on a neutral court, Michigan State and trips to Illinois and Iowa in their final six games is a nasty stretch for any team. 

Michigan forward Will Tschetter and guard Trey McKenney celebrate during a recent game. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Iowa State

Since taking over in Ames, Iowa, T.J. Otzelberger is now a ridiculous 52–6 in nonconference play. That includes this season’s 9–0 start, which the Cyclones have accomplished in spite of playing the toughest nonconference schedule they have put together under Otzelberger. Dominating Purdue at Mackey Arena was a shocker, and going 3–0 at the Players Era Championship was no small feat either. The Cyclones’ three top returners (Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic) all have made real strides to make this offense dynamic, and the defense is as good as any Otzelberger has had in Ames. 

Projected First Loss: Jan. 13 at Kansas

At least by Big 12 standards, Iowa State’s league slate for the first month and a half of conference play is fairly manageable. The easiest potential stumbling block to spot is the always challenging trip to Allen Fieldhouse to play Kansas, but there’s a real chance the Cyclones will be favored in that game. Road tests at Baylor and Oklahoma State could also cause problems, but it wouldn’t be a total shock for Iowa State to reach February unbeaten. 

Duke

Despite its relative youth, Duke has already knocked off five high-major opponents in its first 10 games behind the brilliance of freshman forward Cameron Boozer. The Miami native is averaging 23 points, nearly 10 rebounds and nearly four assists per game and has willed Duke to the finish line against high-level opponents like Florida and Arkansas even with limited help at times from his teammates. The Blue Devils have also been elite defensively early in the season thanks to the frontcourt trio of Boozer, Maliq Brown and Patrick Ngongba II, who’ve anchored the best two-point defense in the country as of now. 

Projected First Loss: Jan. 6 at Louisville 

The final big test of Duke’s nonconference slate is against Texas Tech on Dec. 20. Assuming the Blue Devils win that one and get into ACC undefeated, one of the trickiest games on the slate is a road trip to what’s sure to be a rocking atmosphere in Louisville in Duke’s second ACC game. The ACC should provide more resistance for the Blue Devils than it did a season ago, but KenPom still has Duke favored in all 20 games. The only game it is an underdog in the rest of the way? A monster neutral-court showdown in Washington, D.C., against Michigan on Feb. 21. 

Arizona

Arizona has done a remarkable job of neutering a nonconference schedule that looked unbelievably daunting in the preseason. The Wildcats beat UConn and UCLA in grind-it-out fashion, won a fast-paced race to 90 against Florida and pummeled Auburn most recently. Next up is another shootout against Alabama in Birmingham, the biggest remaining test in that extremely difficult nonleague slate.

Long term, the big question with Arizona surrounds its three-point shooting. The Wildcats take just 26.2% of their shots from three, third to last nationally. And while their style of pounding the paint has raised their floor substantially, it also makes them vulnerable in single-game settings if a team gets cooking from beyond the arc. 

Projected First Loss: Dec. 13 at Alabama 

One of the only teams that has played a schedule even tougher than Arizona is the Tide, and they’ve proven capable of beating just about anyone in the country when they can simply hang in on the glass. If they do that, the Tide will win the shot math game with the amount of threes they can knock down and pull the upset. That said, if Arizona doesn’t lose here, watch out. According to KenPom, the Wildcats would be favored by at least seven points in every game until Jan. 26 at BYU, which kicks off an absolute gauntlet of a final month of the season in league play. 

Arizona forward Ivan Kharchenkov dribbles the ball during a game this season. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt

Based on KenPom, Vanderbilt is now the favorite to win the SEC title after a 9–0 start that has seen the Commodores average almost 97 points per game. The Commodores’ backcourt of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles has been tremendous on both ends of the floor, serving as the engine of Vandy’s high-powered offense and forcing tons of turnovers on the other end. They blew out a very good Saint Mary’s team and also have nice early season wins over SMU, VCU and UCF. Mark Byington’s team looks like it has real staying power in a crowded SEC race. 

Projected First Loss: Jan. 17 vs. Florida 

Other than Michigan, Vanderbilt is the only team currently favored to win every remaining game per KenPom. There’s almost no chance the Commodores go undefeated, but the schedule sets up relatively well to make a run at being the last team left unblemished. A road trip to Wake Forest (Dec. 21) could be tricky, as will a showdown with Alabama in Vandy’s second SEC game. But the team that could cause them significant problems is Florida given the Gators’ overwhelming size and physicality on the glass. 

Nebraska

The Cornhuskers technically have the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 dating back to last season’s run to the College Basketball Crown championship. And Fred Hoiberg’s team is flying high into Big Ten play after dominating in-state rival Creighton 71–50, the Huskers’ third high-major win of the season to date after earlier victories over Oklahoma and Kansas State. 

Big man Rienk Mast’s return after missing the entire 2024–25 season due to knee surgery has been a huge driver of Nebraska’s hot start. He’s one of just three high-major players averaging at least 18 points, six rebounds and three assists per game (Duke’s Boozer and Missouri’s Mark Mitchell are the others).

First Loss: Dec. 13 at Illinois 

The Cornhuskers have a difficult early Big Ten slate, hosting Wisconsin and traveling to Illinois in their two December conference matchups. All things considered, splitting those two would be a positive week and position the Huskers well for NCAA tournament selection heading into 2026. 

Oklahoma State

Head coach Steve Lutz had a bumpy first season on the job, but has the Cowboys playing at a high level early in 2025 after a significant talent injection this offseason. Five players (all new transfers into the program) are averaging in double figures, with many of those guys playing the best basketball of their careers. 

And while Oklahoma State doesn’t have any elite wins on its ledger yet, this 9–0 start doesn’t feel fluky. The Cowboys beat Texas A&M and Northwestern as well as a pair of strong mid-majors in South Florida and Grand Canyon. Saturday’s rivalry matchup with Oklahoma looms large; win that one, and the Cowboys should enter 2026 undefeated. 

First Loss: Jan. 3 at Texas Tech

Road trips to Lubbock and Ames, Iowa, in their first three Big 12 games means a loss is coming sooner rather than later for the Cowboys. But given Oklahoma State’s elite shotmaking talent and the pace they play with, they could be a tough out in Big 12 play and seem like a real threat to go dancing for the first time since 2021.

Miami (Ohio)

The RedHawks returned tons of production from a 25-win team, so expectations were high entering the year. That said, we’ve yet to learn too much about Travis Steele’s team given they’ve played the weakest schedule in the country per KenPom. Of their eight wins, two are against non–Division I teams, four more are against teams ranked 300th or worse nationally and Miami’s highest-rated win is over 3–7 Old Dominion.

That said, the RedHawks are an intriguing mid-major come March thanks to their elite three-point shooting. Miami shoots a ton of threes and ranks top 50 nationally in three-point percentage, making over 37% from distance. 

First Loss: Jan. 3 vs. Akron

The nonconference slate doesn’t get much tougher for the RedHawks, though they will go on the road for their next four games including a potentially tricky one next Tuesday against Wright State. But assuming the RedHawks make it to MAC play undefeated, it will be a tough task to stay that way, opening at 7–3 Bowling Green and then hosting 8–2 Akron. The Zips, who are No. 40 in the NET as of Monday, look like one of the best mid-majors in the country. 

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