How Glaring Duke Issue Could Become Obvious in March

This flaw won't show up in the box score, but could pay major dividends come postseason time.

Jan 17, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer looks on against the Stanford Cardinal in the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

There's no doubt at this point of the 2025-26 college basketball season that the No. 4-ranked Duke Blue Devils (22-2, 11-1 ACC) are one of the best teams in the entire sport and a perennial national title contender. Whether looking at the overall resume, computer numbers, or anything in between, the Blue Devils check all the boxes.

Duke has earned several marquee wins thus far and has looked like the clear-but best team out of the ACC. If the Blue Devils were to take home the ACC crown this year, it would be head coach Jon Scheyer's third time winning the ACC Tournament Championship in four seasons.

Jan 26, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer directs his team during the first half against the Louisville Cardinals at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils are currently ranked No. 3 in the NCAA NET Rankings with potentially the best body of work in the entire sport. Duke is 10-2 in Quadrant 1, 14-2 across the first two quadrants, 11-0 at home, and 8-1 in true road games.

Duke is also 7-2 against AP Top 25 opponents this season and is led by the National Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) handles the ball against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

With an elite mix of star talent, experience, and length on both sides of the ball, Duke is one of the most complete teams in the nation. However, its most glaring issue might not show up on paper.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster (1) dribbles the ball against Pittsburgh Panthers guard Omari Witherspoon (8) during the first half at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Duke’s Inability To Close Games Could Be an Issue in March

The Blue Devils are rated as the No. 3 team in the country at KenPom while ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency. Only Michigan, Arizona, and Houston are also ranked in the top 10 of both metrics.

No advanced stat will show much issue with how the Blue Devils are constructed, but their inability to close out games this season could be a scary reality come NCAA Tournament time.

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Dame Sarr (7) on the court in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke's two losses on the season have come to No. 16 Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20 and in Chapel Hill to No. 11 North Carolina (19-5, 7-4 ACC) this past Saturday night. In both those contests, Duke was in full control.

Against the Red Raiders, Duke led for 66% of the game and held a lead as large as 17 points in the second half. However, that comfortable margin didn't matter, as the Blue Devils crumbled in the final few minutes to fall 82-81.

Feb 10, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) warms up before the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

It was a similar makeup against the Tar Heels. Duke held double-digit leads in both halves with its lead increasing to as many 13 points at one point of the contest. Once again, the Blue Devils folded en route to being handed a 71-68 defeat.

Apr 5, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts after losing to the Houston Cougars in the semifinals of the men's Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Similar Issue Led to Duke Heartbreak in Final Four

Now, it's only been two games where the Blue Devils have utterly collapsed, and Duke is still one of the best teams in college basketball. What makes it more concerning is that this is precisely how Duke fell in crushing fashion to Houston in the 2025 Final Four.

Duke walked into the halftime locker room with a 34-28 lead against the Cougars, 20 minutes away from a National Championship appearance. However, the Blue Devils folded once again. Duke led by 14 points nearing the midway point of the second half and proceeded to give away the lead, ultimately losing to Houston 70-67.

Jan 17, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts against the Stanford Cardinal in the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Scheyer's squad is one of the most talented teams in college hoops, and it's clear it has the makeup to win it all. But it has to be able to close out big games in high-pressure moments.

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