Key Duke Strength Matches St. John’s Weakness in Its Losses

The 1-seed Duke Blue Devils are gearing up to face 5-seed St. John's for a spot in the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils have advanced to the Sweet 16 for three consecutive seasons under head coach Jon Scheyer, and are looking to advance to their third straight Elite Eight in that same span.

Since the official NCAA Tournament bracket was released on Selection Sunday, the Red Storm became a trendy upset pick to upset the top-seeded Blue Devils if the two clubs were to meet in the Sweet 16. Duke now has an opportunity to shut that down.

Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) spins to score near TCU Horned Frogs forward David Punch (15) March 21, 2026 during the second half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Johnnies have won 21 of their last 22 games and, despite playing in an extremely weak Big East, have looked like a prominent squad ready to make a run.

However, this contest bodes well for the Blue Devils as one of the best interior teams in college basketball, and attacking the paint will be a clear game-decider against the Red Storm.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba (21) loses the ball against Texas Christian University Horned Frogs forward David Punch (15) during the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Winning the Paint Could Seal Victory for Blue Devils

Duke has won the bulk of its games this season by destroying its opponents in the paint. The Blue Devils rank seventh nationally at KenPom in two-point field goal shooting percentage (60.3) and 19th in average two-point attempt distance. The paint has been the Blue Devils' best friend all year.

St. John's ranks eighth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and uses physicality to outmatch its opponents inside. The Red Storm rank 36th nationally in two-point field goal percentage defense (47.4).

St. John's has lost the paint battle by a combined margin of 238-160 (-78) in its losses this season. Duke is not the team to surrender the paint to. pic.twitter.com/zdXRt8WHIX
— hughstraine (@HughStraine) March 24, 2026

However, a trend in all of St. John's losses this season has been losing the paint battle, which bodes perfectly for Duke.

In the Johnnies' six losses this year, they have lost the paint battle by a combined margin of 238-160 (-78). St. John's won the paint battle in just one of those games, an 83-82 loss to Iowa State.

Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer talks to a referee March 21, 2026 during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game with TCU at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Overall, St. John's defends the interior well. Although in its losses, it has surrendered the paint at a fair margin. Against one of the most dominant interior teams in college basketball, in Duke, that's a bad sign.

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino looks on in the first half against the Northern Iowa Panthers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Recent Paint Woes Don’t Reflect Success

Now, St. John's has lost the paint battle in both of its NCAA Tournament games by a combined margin of 70-60. However, the Red Storm have also knocked down the three at an unusually high clip.

Across its two tournament games, St. John's has knocked down perimeter shots at a 21-of-64 (32.8%) clip. The Red Storm have hit double-digit threes in both games, which they hadn't previously done since Jan. 10.

Mar 22, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard Dylan Darling (0) celebrates after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Against an elite defensive team in Duke, that likely will not continue.