Duke Must Slow Down Key St. John's Hot Streak

The 1-seed Duke Blue Devils will face 5-seed St. John's for a chance to advance to the Sweet 16. Duke took down 9-seed TCU 81-58 to advance, and the Red Storm defeated 4-seed Kansas 67-65 to move to the Regional Semifinal.

Duke moved to its third consecutive Sweet 16 under head coach Jon Scheyer and is looking to advance to its third straight Elite 8 in that same span. The Johnnies advanced to the second weekend for the first time since 1999.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer reacts after a play during the second half against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils still aren't fully healthy, but sophomore center Patrick Ngongba was back in the lineup against the Horned Frogs for the first time since March 2. Starting junior guard Caleb Foster will likely not suit up for the Sweet 16, as he has been out with a fractured right foot, but Scheyer has hinted that there is a chance the upperclassman plays.

Duke and St. John's mirror each other in many ways: physicality, defense, shots at the rim. Both programs like to win games by grinding it out in the half-court and out-toughing their opposition.

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) with the ball as Texas Christian University Horned Frogs forward David Punch (15) and guard Liutauras Lelevicius (3) defend in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

However, the Johnnies have found a rhythm in an area of the game they haven't utilized heavily all year long, and the Blue Devils will need to slow it down.

Mar 13, 2026; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm guard Ian Jackson (11) drives to the basket against Seton Hall Pirates guard Adam Clark (0) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

St. John's Has Been Red Hot From Three

On the year, the Red Storm haven't been a prolific three-point shooting team at all, and haven't really utilized the three. St. John's ranks 218th nationally in team three-point shooting percentage (33.2) and 281st in three-point attempts per total field goal attempts, according to KenPom. The Johnnies have accumulated just 34.7% of their total points this season from the perimeter, good for the 302nd-highest rate in the nation.

However, as of late, St. John's has utilized the three-point line at a high clip. Through its two NCAA Tournament games, it has knocked down a combined 21-of-64 (32.8%) from beyond the arc. The Johnnies have knocked down at least 10 threes in both of their NCAA Tournament games after not doing so once since Jan. 10.

TCU Horned Frogs forward Micah Robinson (5) drives around Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) March 21, 2026 during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke Defends the Three at a High Level

St. John's has lost the paint battle in both of its tournament games by a combined margin of 70-60. Duke is a squad that defeats its opponents inside and thrives by dominating the paint.

The Blue Devils rank 20th nationally in opponent three-point shooting percentage (30.5). They also rank seventh nationally in two-point field goal shooting percentage (60.3).

Mar 21, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Maliq Brown (6) controls the ball against Texas Christian University Horned Frogs guard Jayden Pierre (1) during the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Red Storm has gotten beaten in the paint in both of its March Madness games and has needed an elevated three-point shot to advance. If Duke can take that away and control the paint as it usually does, a win should be evident.